I did occur to me once (while I was still learning) how similar body dragging is to fly fishing.nab1000 wrote:ya man dont worry about the sharks or when your body draggin back to your board in the deep waters (Shark Trolling)
SHARKS!!! - What do I need to know? WARNING: GRAPHIC
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FredMurphy
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FredMurphy
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kitefree-or-die
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Cirrus I hear some of what you say , especially about the stats being skewed by some irrelevant numbers, but look up the rest in in any combinatorics and optimization book(or maybe grade 10 math)
cumulative probability of several independent events = sum of individual probability of each event
(assuming each time you go into the water is an independent event)
if probability of getting attacked each time by a shark is 1/10 and you go in the water 3 times, the total probability over the 3 times is 3/10 while the probability for each time is 1/10
probability of more than one independent event occuring is product of the events..therefore if probability of getting attacked each time by a shark is 1/10 and you go in the water 3 times, the probability of getting attacked all 3 times is 1/1000.
cumulative probability of several independent events = sum of individual probability of each event
(assuming each time you go into the water is an independent event)
if probability of getting attacked each time by a shark is 1/10 and you go in the water 3 times, the total probability over the 3 times is 3/10 while the probability for each time is 1/10
probability of more than one independent event occuring is product of the events..therefore if probability of getting attacked each time by a shark is 1/10 and you go in the water 3 times, the probability of getting attacked all 3 times is 1/1000.
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FredMurphy
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Actually, that's not right. Otherwise you'd be guaranteed to get a 1 if you rolled a die six times. I could explain why, but it's just too dull.kitefree-or-die wrote:if probability of getting attacked each time by a shark is 1/10 and you go in the water 3 times, the total probability over the 3 times is 3/10 while the probability for each time is 1/10
Not that it's important in this case. We all realise that we're extremely unlikely to get attacked by a shark. Some people worry about it anyway 'cos it's just so gory and messy if we do!
So cirrus....work out these statistics for me....
for example you go on holiday to an area well known to be frequented by sharks deemed to be dangerous. The wind/water is lovely and you are seeing the occasional fin of white/bull shark in the shallows and you are about to go play in the waves....lets hear you talk about probability,pilots and lottery tickets then
Try take your head out of your arse when you reply
glazed over with laughter...cheers!
Now take a look at the topic opener(1st post page one) and read/understand.
for example you go on holiday to an area well known to be frequented by sharks deemed to be dangerous. The wind/water is lovely and you are seeing the occasional fin of white/bull shark in the shallows and you are about to go play in the waves....lets hear you talk about probability,pilots and lottery tickets then
Try take your head out of your arse when you reply
glazed over with laughter...cheers!
Now take a look at the topic opener(1st post page one) and read/understand.
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Cirrus
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Baboon: ? The dude asked what he needs to know about sharks. He needs to know that, statistically speaking, he doesn't really need to know anything because if we make a blanket assumption that ALL the people who got eaten by sharks last year didn't know the first thing about sharks, the chances of him getting eaten by one are STILL so slim it's not even worth discussing!
So for everybody else: I think I had a revelation last night that might put things in perspective because of all the people who claim that if I keep rolling dice, statistically speaking, I'm going to be gauranteed to roll a 6 if I roll it 6 times.
This is where there is a disconnect between what the statistics "You're more likely to..." versus people who blankly state surfers are more likely to be eaten by sharks. Technically speaking, we're both right. As a surfer or kiter, you are more likely to be eaten by a shark than a painter. But that fact alone does not explain the true statistic, and I'll try to make it as plain as possible using examples.
Every day you have a chance of dying and an OPPOSITE chance of NOT dying. Depending on your surroundings, your health, and your actions, a probability can be calculated. Many people are leaving this part out, just like the lottery ticket or the plane crash. You have such a BETTER chance of living compared to dying in general, let alone then trying to pick the WAY you are going to die- those are two separate events which need to be calculated separately.
Lying in bed in the US in a city. Let's pretend it's 1:1,000,000 you'll die lying there. There is a minute % chance that you'll die by suffocating in your blanket. It is slim, but it exists, as does the chance that your ceiling will randomly collapse on top of you. Let's say those are 1:500,000.
There is, however, a MUCH MORE LIKELY chance that you could suffer a heart attack. So much more so than any other way to die. Let's say, based on statistics from the American Heart Association that you have a 1:45,000 chance of dying by heart attack lying in bed. Does this mean you have a 1:45,000 chance of DYING? NO!!!!!!
You can't forget that your OVERALL chance of dying IN GENERAL is still 1:1,000,000, and then if you are the 1 unlucky person in 1,000,000 to perish lying in bed, THEN the chance that you die of a heart attack as opposed to dying by blanket suffocation is admittedly much greater. But if I were a betting man and had to put money on the outcome of the situation, the fact remains the same: I BET THAT THE PERSON WON'T DIE.
Let's see if this example makes it any clearer. You and 29,999 of your friends are going to conduct an experiment by driving to the beach every day 25 miles and then spend 8 hours and wading in the surf. My (made up) statistics say that the chance of dying in a car is 1:30,000 and the chance of dying in the water is 1:30,000. Let's pretend these magic people just CAN'T die other than in the car or in the water (this is obviously untrue, but for this experiment, this is how it is.)
While in the car, the most likely way to die is by a car crash. Let's say it's literally 1:200 - very likely that if these people die in a car, it'll be because of a crash. There is a 1:1,000,000 chance they're going to suffer a heart attack and there is also a 1:50,000,000 chance they're going to be hit by lightning IN the car and die that way. But you can't forget that the OVERALL chance they're going to die is still 1:30,000. My money still goes on the bet that everybody is going to live. If somebody THEN asks me, "How will they die?" I admit the most likely scenario is by car crash, followed by a very unlikely chance they'll die by heart attack and an even MORE remote chance tehy die by lightning strike.
Now let's go to the water. Again, we'll assume they have a 1:30,000 chance of dying in the water. The most likely scenario is that they will drown, let's say it's literally 1:5000 chance they're going to drown. Not as high as a car crash when in a car in terms of "way to die." They could also get struck and killed by lightning. Now that they're outside, compared to the car, they have a 1:500,000 chance of being struck and killed by lightning. They could also be eaten by a shark, but the statistics say that they have a 1:10,000,000 chance of dying that way. My money is STILL going to be on the fact that everybody is going to live. If somebody THEN asks me, "If somebody dies, how will they die?" My answer would be that if somebody dies, they will most likely drown. I would still bet that they have a better chance of being struck by lightning than being eaten by a shark. Saying you have a 1:10,000,000 chance of being eaten by a shark is actually UNDERSTATING the statistic, because you first have to take into account it's 1:30,000 chance you're even going to die in the first place!
But overall, the chances that NOBODY will die in each scenario remains 29,999:30,000. That has the greatest probability of occuring. But for the one poor sap who eats it, we can then estimate the likliehood of HOW he eats it. Shark attack is such a small chance of occuring IF you die, you have a better chance of drowning.
Sorry if I upset you Baboon
So for everybody else: I think I had a revelation last night that might put things in perspective because of all the people who claim that if I keep rolling dice, statistically speaking, I'm going to be gauranteed to roll a 6 if I roll it 6 times.
This is where there is a disconnect between what the statistics "You're more likely to..." versus people who blankly state surfers are more likely to be eaten by sharks. Technically speaking, we're both right. As a surfer or kiter, you are more likely to be eaten by a shark than a painter. But that fact alone does not explain the true statistic, and I'll try to make it as plain as possible using examples.
Every day you have a chance of dying and an OPPOSITE chance of NOT dying. Depending on your surroundings, your health, and your actions, a probability can be calculated. Many people are leaving this part out, just like the lottery ticket or the plane crash. You have such a BETTER chance of living compared to dying in general, let alone then trying to pick the WAY you are going to die- those are two separate events which need to be calculated separately.
Lying in bed in the US in a city. Let's pretend it's 1:1,000,000 you'll die lying there. There is a minute % chance that you'll die by suffocating in your blanket. It is slim, but it exists, as does the chance that your ceiling will randomly collapse on top of you. Let's say those are 1:500,000.
There is, however, a MUCH MORE LIKELY chance that you could suffer a heart attack. So much more so than any other way to die. Let's say, based on statistics from the American Heart Association that you have a 1:45,000 chance of dying by heart attack lying in bed. Does this mean you have a 1:45,000 chance of DYING? NO!!!!!!
You can't forget that your OVERALL chance of dying IN GENERAL is still 1:1,000,000, and then if you are the 1 unlucky person in 1,000,000 to perish lying in bed, THEN the chance that you die of a heart attack as opposed to dying by blanket suffocation is admittedly much greater. But if I were a betting man and had to put money on the outcome of the situation, the fact remains the same: I BET THAT THE PERSON WON'T DIE.
Let's see if this example makes it any clearer. You and 29,999 of your friends are going to conduct an experiment by driving to the beach every day 25 miles and then spend 8 hours and wading in the surf. My (made up) statistics say that the chance of dying in a car is 1:30,000 and the chance of dying in the water is 1:30,000. Let's pretend these magic people just CAN'T die other than in the car or in the water (this is obviously untrue, but for this experiment, this is how it is.)
While in the car, the most likely way to die is by a car crash. Let's say it's literally 1:200 - very likely that if these people die in a car, it'll be because of a crash. There is a 1:1,000,000 chance they're going to suffer a heart attack and there is also a 1:50,000,000 chance they're going to be hit by lightning IN the car and die that way. But you can't forget that the OVERALL chance they're going to die is still 1:30,000. My money still goes on the bet that everybody is going to live. If somebody THEN asks me, "How will they die?" I admit the most likely scenario is by car crash, followed by a very unlikely chance they'll die by heart attack and an even MORE remote chance tehy die by lightning strike.
Now let's go to the water. Again, we'll assume they have a 1:30,000 chance of dying in the water. The most likely scenario is that they will drown, let's say it's literally 1:5000 chance they're going to drown. Not as high as a car crash when in a car in terms of "way to die." They could also get struck and killed by lightning. Now that they're outside, compared to the car, they have a 1:500,000 chance of being struck and killed by lightning. They could also be eaten by a shark, but the statistics say that they have a 1:10,000,000 chance of dying that way. My money is STILL going to be on the fact that everybody is going to live. If somebody THEN asks me, "If somebody dies, how will they die?" My answer would be that if somebody dies, they will most likely drown. I would still bet that they have a better chance of being struck by lightning than being eaten by a shark. Saying you have a 1:10,000,000 chance of being eaten by a shark is actually UNDERSTATING the statistic, because you first have to take into account it's 1:30,000 chance you're even going to die in the first place!
But overall, the chances that NOBODY will die in each scenario remains 29,999:30,000. That has the greatest probability of occuring. But for the one poor sap who eats it, we can then estimate the likliehood of HOW he eats it. Shark attack is such a small chance of occuring IF you die, you have a better chance of drowning.
Sorry if I upset you Baboon
Cirrus.....no offence taken. You just don`t get it.
ie . since you are using lightning in you numbers now.....
If you go to the plains of Africa/India etc during a tropical(lightning) storm and fly a kite....statistics aside.....your chances of getting struck are fairly bloody good.
Ie.If you were to go kiteing at dusk/dawn in an area frequented by sharks deemed dangerous, had a cut from some coral say and had a boat chumming nearby and it was mating season and kiteing in the water 6 hours a day etc.......the only person in the water is cirrus cos he`s not too bright.
Ie.The polar bear is the only land animal known to activly stalk humans....unless you are in the polar regions where they are common you are not to likely to get stalked and in some regoins you are required to be armed for this eventuallity.
and then there is cirrus who`s advice is......you don`t kneed to know anything, you will be fine statisticly speaking. well news for you... those who prepare are statisticly more likely to fare better when encountering what they prepared for!!!!
now factor into your statistics the amount of beaches that use shark nets where the probability is high. The increase in population and recreational water users over the decades, the use of other shark deterents and the thousands of unreported cases/close calls missing from the statistics as well as many other factors not yet known. I think you may find many of these unfortunate folk are your relatives.
Cirrus ....I will leave you here ....your head up your arse
PS. that must have been some revelation.....what Ernie loves Bert ?:lol:
ie . since you are using lightning in you numbers now.....
If you go to the plains of Africa/India etc during a tropical(lightning) storm and fly a kite....statistics aside.....your chances of getting struck are fairly bloody good.
Ie.If you were to go kiteing at dusk/dawn in an area frequented by sharks deemed dangerous, had a cut from some coral say and had a boat chumming nearby and it was mating season and kiteing in the water 6 hours a day etc.......the only person in the water is cirrus cos he`s not too bright.
Ie.The polar bear is the only land animal known to activly stalk humans....unless you are in the polar regions where they are common you are not to likely to get stalked and in some regoins you are required to be armed for this eventuallity.
and then there is cirrus who`s advice is......you don`t kneed to know anything, you will be fine statisticly speaking.
well news for you... those who prepare are statisticly more likely to fare better when encountering what they prepared for!!!!now factor into your statistics the amount of beaches that use shark nets where the probability is high. The increase in population and recreational water users over the decades, the use of other shark deterents and the thousands of unreported cases/close calls missing from the statistics as well as many other factors not yet known. I think you may find many of these unfortunate folk are your relatives.
Cirrus ....I will leave you here ....your head up your arse
PS. that must have been some revelation.....what Ernie loves Bert ?:lol:
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kitefree-or-die
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