Wind Observations

[celly]

How accurate are wind observations? Is there a length of time where predictions are pretty much useless (ex. over 3 days). And what sites do you use to see when your next kiting session is going down? Im from Canada and use localkitespots and sailflow, any other reliable sources you could share with a new kiter?

[Peter_Frank]

How accurate are wind observations? Is there a length of time where predictions are pretty much useless (ex. over 3 days). And what sites do you use to see when your next kiting session is going down? Im from Canada and use localkitespots and sailflow, any other reliable sources you could share with a new kiter?

They can be extremely accurate - as well as almost useless

Observation stations are sometimes located "not perfect", so even in onshore winds there can be shadowing so they show less, especially in some wind directions.
Although, they aim for being up at ten meters height, with free wind.
But not always the case...

Other stations can have a ridge, from a building or trees or similar, that will in fact accelerate the wind speed, so it will show more wind that in reality.

So you got to learn to know your local stations, and add a little or subtract a little - depending on wind direction of course.

Regarding predictions, if a low/high pressure system area, you can sometimes see two days ahead
but most often not more than that - only as a rough guideline whether to expect stable (bad weather without wind) or unstable (awesome with lots of wind) weather.
But the wind direction and strength can not be known untill quite late.

Sometimes a forecast two days ahead can also be useless

But one day forward is relatively "safe" with the datapower and experience they got today.

And I like that you actually ask

Because, if one got no experience with water or flight sports - one can not know how it works.

So often have we seen some new kitesurfers, looking at the forecast for saturday, when it is only monday - and arranging with many others that they would go out that saturday as the wind will be "perfect"
And that is NEVER going to happen - a forecast so long forward will change, maybe even radically, 3-6 times before you get to saturday, most often (when talking low pressure systems that is)

Most locations around the world got their very own weather systems though - so there are huge differences all over.
Some has very predictable and the same (extremely boring) low thermal winds every day - others got extremely strong mountain or special winds.
And combinations with really strong winds because of thermals and sometimes added effects to form really heavy wind.

But the low pressure systems at the northern (or southern) hemisphere, works in somewhat the same way typically, but with some differences though, but can deliver all winds ranging from absolutely zero and buttersmooth flat water if no swell, to storm or even hurricanes occasionally


I think you have to ask some who lives in your local area - how reliable the predictions are ?

Hope it was some help ?

Peter

[Wawando]

I have setup a weather station in our spot. That is accurate
About forecasts i have a theory that windguru has a commercial model that puts good forecasts 5 days ahead so that you go there more often and they get more pageviews
Usually local forecasts (from local weather channels) are more accurate than global providers like windguru and windfinder.
Unfortunatelly they don't bother much about windspeed (15 or 25 knots) so you have to map the "moderate wind" to the meaning in your specific spot.
There is a guy in my spot that is using the data from my weather station to adjust the forecast model. Nothing public (and may never be as it might end up in lost in a hard-drive like most of academic work... )

[adrianoliguori]

I have setup a weather station in our spot. That is accurate
About forecasts i have a theory that windguru has a commercial model that puts good forecasts 5 days ahead so that you go there more often and they get more pageviews
Usually local forecasts (from local weather channels) are more accurate than global providers like windguru and windfinder.
Unfortunatelly they don't bother much about windspeed (15 or 25 knots) so you have to map the "moderate wind" to the meaning in your specific spot.
There is a guy in my spot that is using the data from my weather station to adjust the forecast model. Nothing public (and may never be as it might end up in lost in a hard-drive like most of academic work... )

Wawando, how did you "set it up"? Which equipment did you use?

[SupaEZ]

If the top of the palm trees at my beach move a little...... i can go
If not i don't.......that is the only observation i need

[14ToeSide]

+1 with SupaEz

[celly]

Thanks a lot Peter Frank, very helpful. Do you find that wind seep is easier to easier to predict than wind direction? Based on the sites I use, the direction changes quite a bit...

[alexeyga]

celly,

around the sh#thole where we live the only forecasts that are more or less accurate are these for no-wind. For the rest, unless a big storm or hurricane is passing by the coast, you can't really count on anything over 2 days.

That being said, i'm sure I'm not the only one who'd noticed that this year forecasts are particularly unstable. At least for the North American's East coast. Not to mention very weird windstats. By about now we've already been like 6 times in Cap Cod last season, but in this season - not even once since February! OBX on the other hand is blasting this summer.