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How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out?

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Osprey1
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How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out?

Postby Osprey1 » Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:51 pm

Do you find windyty.ty, windfinder, windguru and other tools including the GFS effective for specific Caribbean spots more than 4 days out?

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby Laughingman » Wed Mar 11, 2015 4:02 pm

Not even remotely

Any spot which depends on weather systems to produce wind requires perfect timing in forecasting... impossible to get it right consistently, in fact if they do they are lucky.
Your best bet is to find a spot which has a local phenomenon which produces its own thermals. Those you can forecast quite well.

Even then 4 days out is a stretch, I typically hold judgement till the morning of....lol

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby southflorida » Wed Mar 11, 2015 4:59 pm

For the Caribbean, I think windyty (which is a graphical representation of the GFS forecast model) is accurate 4 days out, way more accurate than, say, the GFS around S. Florida.

The trade winds are not a local weather condition, they span the Atlantic right into the Caribbean. They blow consistently for days/weeks even months in a row during the season.

In the summer, you will get interruptions in the trades as the ITCZ moves north a bit at times, just depends on where you look in the Caribbean.

Watch windyty in the Caribbean. We are in the best Caribbean trade wind months right now through about May.

Careful - if you are thinking the north coast of Cuba, PR or DR are Caribbean, they are not. Large land masses do create local weather conditions that affect the models.

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby Laughingman » Wed Mar 11, 2015 5:10 pm

southflorida wrote:
Careful - if you are thinking the north coast of Cuba, PR or DR are Caribbean, they are not. Large land masses do create local weather conditions that affect the models.
I would consider all of these part of the Caribbean which is exactly what I am basing my previous posts on. Wikipedia agrees....

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby Danydan » Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:51 pm

And wikipedia is always right ;-)

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby jrfiol » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:36 pm

Osprey1 wrote:Do you find windyty.ty, windfinder, windguru and other tools including the GFS effective for specific Caribbean spots more than 4 days out?
I use these forcast tools daily... and have to say I can tell what is going to happen four days ahead about half of the time.

The past three weeks have been super windy... In summertime, the forecasts are more credible.

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby Eduardo » Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:36 am

you need a mix of forecasts plus local knowledge and then almost anywhere you can get a rough sense with the 10 day forecast. I don't mean choose-the-kite knowledge. I mean, is this worth getting on a plane and blowing a week of vacation and big $. 10 days out you can know is the usual pressure system in place or is something bad going on? For most places, I've found that if you have a good sensor, you can learn before even your first trip how to adjust for forecasts vs. reality. Also you should learn to read a pressure map if you're serious about forecasting. For your specific question, I have found the southern Caribbean long range forecasts both east & west (Barbardos to Aruba) very reliable. For example, normal Aruba is one of the windiest places anywhere. If in the summer you see a tropical disturbance, it could kill it. obviously, no one can predict a hurricane path 10 days out. but even the possible presence of such a disturbance in the trades and VZ/low pressure would make me not go.

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby Osprey1 » Thu Mar 12, 2015 5:29 am

Eduardo good tips. If my ticket wasn't already purchased I'd probably not go next week. Most of the southern caribbean isn't looking the greatest. Barbados has a bunch of 14 knot days but with the current I don't know if it will be kiteable with a 14m even. Let's hope we get a few more knots :)

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Re: How accurate are Carribean forecasting tools >4 days out

Postby TPink » Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:17 pm

Just go to Aruba, they can accurately forecast years in advance...

What a dream job, the weatherman on Aruba!


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