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Hatteras online forecast

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kiteontario
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Hatteras online forecast

Postby kiteontario » Sun May 08, 2016 4:34 pm

What is the best website to go to for wind forecasts on the Soundside of Hatteras?

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Re: Hatteras online forecast

Postby FLandOBX » Sun May 08, 2016 7:57 pm

They all suck. I'm there now, and there hasn't been a lot of accuracy in the forecasts lately.

I use iKitesurf, primarily because (with the pro subscription) you get a "daily briefing" each day at 7am and 7pm for the Outer Banks (NC) and Tidewater (VA). These are verbal analyses of the pertinent weather patterns and forecasts for the current day and the next several days. These verbal updates are provided by local meterologists who focus on wind conditions, and they are usually more accurate than the numerical charts that appear on all the forecast sites.

By way of example, here is today's 7am "daily briefing" (from iKitesurf.com):


"Human Meteorologist Forecasts: Today's Briefing
Computer Model Data: 5/08 | 5/09 | 5/10 | 5/11 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 5/14 | >>Wind Obs Map<<

Professional Meteorologist Forecast

Outer Banks forecast valid for Sun, May 8 2016

Issued Sun, May 8 07:00:00 by meteorologist Tim Kent - Next scheduled update: 7:00 PM
Special updates issued as needed.
Modest SW flow with evening NE potential in the north.

Forecast looking mostly on track with only minor changes called for ahead of the 7AM update.....

Cold front to try to pull through the region but computers are at odds if it will succeed. Best bet is that the front will get hung up to the north then slowly droop south which keeps much of the region in the SW flow much of the day.

• Focus to be on the morning for the SW flow but we may see a shower or 2 that might disrupt flow but widely scattered.

• Watch trends to the north as the NE turn will come on north to south. Nags Head and north could see a boost in winds after they turn NE late in the day but questionable how far south this NE push will get.

Jockey's Ridge 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 10 - 14 11 - 15 11 - 15 10 - 14 9 - 13 6 - 10 15 - 19 13 - 17
Direction SSW SW SW WSW W W N ENE

Waves 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 11 - 15 14 - 18 14 - 18 13 - 17 12 - 16 11 - 15 11 - 15 13 - 17
Direction SW SW SW SW SW SW SSW NE

Avon Sound 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 11 - 15 16 - 20 16 - 20 15 - 19 14 - 18 14 - 18 12 - 16 13 - 17
Direction SW WSW WSW WSW SW SW SSW N

Frisco Woods 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 13 - 17 16 - 20 16 - 20 15 - 19 14 - 18 14 - 18 11 - 15 6 - 10
Direction SW WSW WSW WSW SW SW SSW WNW

Ocracoke 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 14 - 18 16 - 20 15 - 19 13 - 17 12 - 16 12 - 16 11 - 15 11 - 15
Direction SW WSW WSW WSW SW SW SSW W

Forecast and tables above prepared by meteorologist Tim Kent


VA / NC Extended Forecast
Issued Sun, May 8 07:00:00 by meteorologist Tim Kent - Next scheduled update: 7:00 PM
Special updates issued as needed.

Light winds the next few days for VA waters. SW flow pulls in a bit on OBX for Monday then holds Tuesday and Wednesday.

Outlook remains on track for the VA/NC region early on, with no real changes required ahead of the 7AM update....

Frontal boundary stalls over VA waters the next few days which keeps a mix of southerly and NE flow in and out of the Tidewater but weak. OBX stays just outside of this frontal influence and in the SW zone for several days.

Mon, May 9 2016

SE flow and showery for VA waters with mid teens early then fading going light and variable. OBX a showery SE wind fades but then SW flow fills in south to north for evening mid teens.

Tue, May 10 2016

VA waters ENE flow low teens early fades off with weak ESE winds less than 10 knots. OBX SW flow mid teens increases to upper teens.

Wed, May 11 2016

VA waters light winds with afternoon SE flow pushing low teens. OBX SW flow upper teens much of the day."

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Re: Hatteras online forecast

Postby dylan* » Sun May 08, 2016 9:24 pm

I've had pretty good luck with windfinder while i was there

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Re: Hatteras online forecast

Postby NHKitesurfer » Tue May 10, 2016 4:36 pm

Last week in OBX they more or less got the forecast every day. One day they said 5-8 knots and it blew low 20's. There were storm fronts to the north and south which made predicting wind impossible. Normally it's a bit more predictable as the sw winds come through.

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Re: Hatteras online forecast

Postby FLandOBX » Tue May 10, 2016 8:37 pm

NHKitesurfer wrote:Last week in OBX they more or less got the forecast every day.
NHKitesurfer, did you inadvertently omit a word in that sentence? (Serious question.) :?:

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Re: Hatteras online forecast

Postby NHKitesurfer » Tue May 10, 2016 11:16 pm

FLandOBX wrote:
NHKitesurfer wrote:Last week in OBX they more or less got the forecast every day.
NHKitesurfer, did you inadvertently omit a word in that sentence? (Serious question.) :?:
Haha yes - they more or less got it WRONG every day

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Re: Hatteras online forecast

Postby kooshball » Tue May 10, 2016 11:51 pm

Most of the time the forecast is partially accurate, sometimes the forecast is way off, sometimes the forecast is dead on.

They are basically trying to forecast for a sandbar 30-miles off the mainland with the nearest NWS office nowhere close.

Quiver up. Could be 12, could be 25, or could be flat.

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Re: Hatteras online forecast

Postby rascalmat » Mon May 23, 2016 1:14 am

I've been a resident on the Outer Banks for 35 years. I use the Ikitesurf (Weatherflow) site daily. The forecast are highly dependent on the location of warm and cold fronts. The wind forecast was tough last week because the fronts were very unpredictable. They can stall to the north or the south or they can end up right on top of you like the current low. You can usually look at the surface features and get a better idea of the wind forecast. I use as many sources as possible and never depend on a single forecast source.


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