Thanks very much for all the thoughtful theoretical and first person response to this thread.
I won't quote every response but there was something quotable in almost every one.
@elguapo: I get that people are passionate about accurate reporting and the distinction of El Nino years, and don't want quick reading of generalizations to be lead to disappointing experiences. Going back, I believe it was actually March 2003 the last time i visited and no trades blowing that year (at least early March) - have to study the el nino state and pressures systems at the time to figure why it chilled out when i was there. Storm winds only and i got 2 days out of 10. So I know that can happen, worst case scenario. And seems that you and Tracy are actually on the same page, just emphasizing the half full or half empty storyline. But even in recent ( el Nino I think) years, the cabarete beach meters archive didn't look that bad for 2018 and 2019 (i use iwindsurf.com but i think we're looking at the same meters. the link you posted to wind record didn't come through if it was meant to show that the "gocabarete" meter is optimistic). although there were a couple 4 day down periods, nothing like what i experienced in 2003. It does look like the wind comes on in the afternoon, so you are getting a thermal but not as strong as the summer?
@tracys : those bar graphs in your blog post show just what i saw in various wind statistic presenations, a little more than 2/3 days are better than 10 mph. 10 mph kind of defines downwind for me and 14 or 15 kiters choice. it doesn't have to rock into the 20s for us to be having a good time. I can get good wind at home (narraganset bay in rhode island, and the cape until the sharks took over) and kite hard 7 or 8 months a year so this is meant to be warm sunny break from winter. yes, want some kiting, but it isn't our main chance of the year to catch wind. And I consider 2/3 of the time downwinder or better to be a fine time in that context, although noone can promise we won't get a down year from that average. probably early to see how pressure systems are going to set up for this winter so i just have to go best guess. (even when we were in 24/7 heaven in the turks or st. lucia, i just couldn't kite that much. gotta spend some quality time with non-kiting compatriots so a 2/3 statistic isn't that shabby except by comparison to nonstop.)
I absoultely know that there are places with even surer wind in March but they are more expensive to go and stay and we're bringing a big contingent of non-kiters as well and my wife still recalls the birdwatching in the DR which beats the doors off coral atolls like Turks (absolutely the best most reliable kiting with unlimited sand and never saw an urchin -- i'm not saying they aren't there but so much shallow sandy water and even where the bottom was a little harder west of long bay was clear and urchin free. And the middle caicos is killer beautiful. puerto rico was great, went last year, but the riding spots at the northwest end are a little more circumscribed.
so that is kind of why i started this thread to understand the DR north coast better. if we pull the trigger here, we will come to kite beach on occasion, i'm sure, for the comraderie and share a beer and get out with everyone, but for practice and villa leading onto less crowded beach i'm looking to the east a little. The only thing I didn't see in @tracys response and links was whether the wind (trades esp. or storm driven if they are blowing) comes into La Ermita and Playa Rio Piedro, because that looks like its got a little more near shore reef protection from the break for practice but not highly utilized for other recreation where we would be intruding on beach culture.
we try to be sensitive to staying away from other beach users and will walk to make that happen and of course don't crowd folks in the water so as not to wear out our welcome, but it looks like these outlying beaches don't have too much user conflict. Las Terranas, I can see, has some possible sheltered riding like Cabarete. See a kiteshool on the east side behind a point. I love the Samana peninsula but seems like it is just developed enough and marketed for competing beach uses that one has to be careful not to put a foot wrong as far as choosing location. (do see a few deserted stretches that look like they wouldn't be bad or interfering. And I would guess you could go by some developed areas on downwinder and come in at some point to get picked up as long as you choose a decent spot to put the kites right down. But I'm thinking we'd probably want to stay closer to Cabarete. By standards of riding someplaces, Las Canas is the same place as Cabarete. Whether in the states on the great lakes or mexican coast near cancun, seems like folks drive 2 or 3 hours depending on wind direction. So i was really think of Las Canas as being out of the Cabarete orb, but just on the quiet end of the confab like almost anything east of the Cabarete bay. We might take a drive to Las Galeras for diving and then some of the kite folks could put in for a downwinder in las terranas area on the way back.
and because we are looking for a little less crowds but close to beach for others in our party, we maybe don't get the perfection of the cabarete set up itself, but we can drive 20 minutes from las canas and get that. that's kind of my thinking. i didn't see any villa's right at La Boca. That might work and i'll look again because that looks fun, flats in the river outlet, open water riding off. And the places i found in cabarete tended to the west side toward sosua and encuentro which is a little more technical than we would want to be riding as a rule and isn't much of swimming beach either or moves into the wind shadow rounding he headlands.
i appreciate the depth of your responses. as you can see i overthink this, because that is what i do, and then i just come and have fun whether the wind is blowing or not! Presidentes all around.