Why are wind forecasts frequently way off? Probabilities!

[dejavu]

Very rarely accurate. Look at the usual meteorology sites then plus or minus 10KN and pack those kites. Also at least two boards.

[Peter_Frank]

Super helpful Peter! That's interesting about CT.

However, do you think the CT numerical forecasts pick up the thermal "strength" accurately? If you look at the historical forecasted wind stats at windguru for Kite Beach or CT it says there's only 5 days/month with 22 knots. That's pretty low!

https://www.windguru.cz/archive-stats.p ... pot=502651

Also, you mentioned "national weather maps"; is there something that's better than windy.com? I've always thought windy's wind maps would be among the best but haven't done a deep dive.

Well, CT is a semi thermal wind spot, but not the classic seabreeze wind, so very different to our low pressure systems up here.
I can not tell how good/wrong they are in this respect, predicting...
There is most often wind in the summer, almost every day yes.
In january, out of 14 days apparently every year, only 2 dont have wind (if you drive a tad some of the days), and a 9 is mostly worthless bringing, 4-5-6-7 maybe 8 m2 for light wind works.

Regarding National weather maps, well, our weather maps are really good here in Denmark so we can not complain at all, as they are mostly extremely accurate as said, amazing
But they are national, so each country (states when in US?) will have their own meteorology institute I believe (or not?) and one would expect the quality to be varying from super to rubbish


Regarding seabreezes, they are often impossible to predict.
Of course, in the spring when the water is cold and the sun heats the land, the chances are higher.
But they can easily occur in late summer also - around here its starts around 13 o'clock and fades out between 17 and 19 in the evening again.

Having lived here by the sea most of my life, sailing/flying/surfing and seen how it can either come up and work magic, or not start at all, OR, complete opposite, give a dead mass of air at the coast with absolutely no wind at the sea but wind above and at other spots around.

Precisely as you said kitesurfski1, too many variables and it is totally random whether it is triggered or not, thus can not be predicted.

I hear/see that in some places the seabreeze is very predictable, but not everywhere, at least not in pressure system areas like we got here, eventhough when high pressure (where it is most likely to occur because of no clouds and not much prevailing wind, could be offshore and turn onshore when it starts) the chances are quite high.

What matters a lot more though, around here, is local tunnel/funnel and shoreline effects, so we can almost always find some wind in the neighbourhood because of that, and as we got around hundred bays and spots very close, and wind can accelerate at one spot and be fine, while dead at most others - cool, but takes some experience to find of course, and can be a lottery.

Peter