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Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

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purdyd
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby purdyd » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:53 am

Kamikuza wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:13 am
[

It's a ratio, so more testing = lower CFR. I thought Italy had given up on testing so the CFR is inaccurate.

Interesting about the boat passengers...
It’s a ratio between people who caught the disease and those who die.

More testing does not by itself reduce the case fatality rate. The underlying assumption has always been there are more people who get the disease than reported.

Thus lowering the rate, when a greater percentage of the population is tested.

It is true that Italy hasn’t tested as great a portion of the population but I’d don’t believe they have given up testing. If anything they have increased testing.

I truly hope that 8.5% is not the final death rate in Italy.

Here is an opinion article where the conjecture is that Italy’s high rate is a combination of age and lack of tests

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinion ... index.html

If it does turn out to be 1% even in Italy, that is troubling because it means there are almost 10 times as many cases as are being reported.

Germany is cause for hope.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby alunj » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:09 am

Flyfish wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:59 am
loco4viento wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:10 am
revhed wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:58 pm
Now I am WAY pissed off!
That first sentence caught my attention! I was thinking “this guy has a problem and needs to settle down!” 😀

Then I read the rest of it and I get your point. I think it’s fine to say “play at your own risk and be responsible for your own actions.” I think you should be able to kite all day every day.

Telling you that you can’t kite is a little too much.

I wish people would be less selfish. Get over it. You will live losing a few kitting days.

http://www.thundercling.com/2020/03/the ... -covid-19/
It’s going to be a lot more than a few . Here they are planning to keep the restrictions in place for upto 18 months after an initial 3 months reverting to one off restrictions two on

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby UKSurf » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:23 am

Looking back over this thread makes interesting reading. 10 days ago no one was really seriously worried about the Virus (myself included, I thought it was going to be serious but nothing like this) and the UK government were saying that it should not effect life too much and that the plan was for people to get immunity to it. Now a lot of countries are on lockdown, UK government has done a 180 on their initial plan shutting schools telling over 70s to stay inside for months. A lot of people and businesses are going to face bankruptcy unless they can work out some kind of temporary debt forgiveness . What is behind this rapidly changing situation is that we are on an exponential curve with the spread of the virus exploding, and the concern that the virus might be more fatal than initially thought. I believe in a month millions are going to have this virus in Europe and the US, and it is very possible that the healthcare system of a lot of countries is going to be overwhelmed. What will follow on from that is countries declaring a state of emergency and Martial Law. I hope I am wrong.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby longwhitecloud » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:16 pm

The poor people that don't understand how statistics are used in any way the news media wants without explanation. These news outlets are low lifes.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby marlboroughman » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:36 pm

IMG_20200319_093608.jpg
IMG_20200319_093608.jpg (44.55 KiB) Viewed 206 times

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby revhed » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:47 pm

Remember when one could get on a plane with a liter of water not go through metal detector and feel safe!
So maybe now thermal cameras as well, have a temp, facial recon links to your doctor and checks ALL your med records,A I might help, you thought they were private, then what?
I know not true :?: and out there, but maybe mother nature is fighting back against us, the cancer of the planet?
Plastic, C02, to many, ect....we should feel very sorry...
Just now the police pass with loud speaker saying to stay home. This in a city of less than 100...Wonder if so in Paris?
R H

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby purdyd » Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:37 pm

Interesting Italy tested an entire village, twice.

1% mortality rate, half infected are asymptomatic, that tracks with previous data.
The Italian experience suggests that locking downtowns is a necessary but insufficient condition to stop the spread of the disease. If 50 percent of the infected are asymptomatic, there is no hope of containing the disease unless we subject ourselves to massive testing. On February 22, 3 percent of the inhabitants of Vo Euganeo, a small town close to Padua, were infected. After two weeks in which the town was locked down and a massive testing program applied, only 0.25 percent were infected.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby Regularkiter » Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:58 pm

if this last a year, luxury markets will be hit hard, including kiteboarding, do you guys think a lot of kiting brands will go out of business?

Another thing to consider is that whatever we have on shelves in terms of kiting gear, that might be it, so if you want to buy something, the time is now as later it might not exist?
Thoughts?

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby purdyd » Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:10 pm

This appears to be the report that scared the U.K. and USA into action from the imperial college in U.K.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234 ... ly-impact/

If I am reading this right, U.K. should peak in April if everything is closed and this graph assumes these measures are carried out through September.

But when they are relaxed, it just comes back with a vengeance. So unless a vaccine or better treatments come along, we are right back where we started.
4E4E8AEC-A970-44AD-967C-80DED152E8E9.png

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby knotwindy » Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:37 pm

I understand that folks really want to know what’s going on right now and how things will shake out. They want to feel as secure as possible and able to make plans that might be accurate enough to help them feel safer.
But, there is a lot of Wild Ass Guessing here because it is all based on poor and inaccurate information. This always happens early on as reported numbers are always partial and almost useless. Stop trying to outguess a fluid situation with terrible and lack of info. Be safe but don’t believe the noise.


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