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Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

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Matteo V
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby Matteo V » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:11 pm

Matty V wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:07 pm
And yet the requirement for guns wasn’t compulsory to get through those “many” times and in “many” places

Yours sincerely Stan.
Not for Humanity. But many disarmed families and/or entire genetic lineage are not present here on this Earth today because there was no way for them to fight back.

So the point is that we will get through this as a species. But what are lives look like on the other side of this is what is always in question. And hopefully, we don't lose entire genetic lineages of people because some government decided they needed to be starved or murdered.

Again, it's just putting in perspective how giving up kiteboarding for a while, or even a whole year, isn't nearly comparable a sacrifice to that which Millions of people on this Earth suffered before.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby StillLovinIt » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:19 pm

Rate of COVID-19 testing in select countries worldwide as of March 20, 2020
https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... worldwide/
Kind of shocking how far down you need to scroll to find the US :-(
Rate of COVID-19 testing in select countries worldwide as of 2020-03-20.png

kiteykitekite
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby kiteykitekite » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:48 pm

Mark my words much of these isolation orders are far too early. They will only delay the peak and their damage will be greater than had they not been enacted. Two scenarios isolation continues beyond 3 weeks and damage from them is huge, virus may be reset 3 months. In 3months the same situation is presented, maybe a vaccine is ready though. Other scenario is for under 3 weeks and the virus is reset maybe 1 month. No vaccine certainly and we likely will need to isolate again. Best scenario is to isolate all vulnerable with deliveries etc for food, avoiding all other contact. Then allow the rest of society to continue as is, while maximizing infection rate especially among the least vulnerable, ie children. In maybe 3-4months infection will be mostly gone with 80% plus percent of the population having immunity.

This is not new, for diseases like the various measles and chickenpox, children used to be intentionally infected because they could handle it best when young and then gain lifetime immunity. This virus is pathetic compared to them.

The alternative is we allow the current economic damage to continue, which likely will cause a depression, which will likely also cause a world war.

China has the right idea now they are no longer testing and largely just ignoring the virus. They tried isolation and it nearly collapsed their country.

Lock up and isolate the old and sick. Get back to work, let the virus roll and help it along as quickly as we can. We will survive this just fine.

Matteo V
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby Matteo V » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:00 am

kiteykitekite wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:48 pm

Kkk,

You make some valid points, but I think you're way off in left field with your "could have should have would have". The assumption that government could actually do something right??? Nah, I can guarantee you this one is already messed up so bad that it's going to rewrite the textbook for what not to do. And the damage control will be equally bad, so get ready for a poor performance evaluation of everyone involved, by everyone still around in a few years.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby kiteykitekite » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:07 am

Of course we can always have done better. I didn't want to come off that way. This is still a fast evolving situation, and the wrong thing would be to do nothing. We know from Italy how that would go. We need to consider other solutions. Unlike China who was first and going quite blind into this, we are now more informed. China is just as vulnerable as when it started, they only delayed things. In fact China might be more vulnerable now, because of the conditions the first lock down has created.

One thing the Government and I think Trump in particular got right was the early travel ban on China. Sure things are not going so well now but if we just continue they will be much worse in a few ways. Our hospitals will be over loaded and god help if you need them for anything. Hope you don't have an accident like in a car or kiting. I 100% am in the camp with Trump that the cure can't be worse than the disease though. We need alternative thinking, which I offered. We can only sustain short lockdowns. They need to be targeted. Individuals that are at the highest risk to this should completely isolate. Society should support them in this. Then society needs immunity. Delaying the virus amongst those that will have little problems to it is just increasing the length of time and risk to those that will have problems from it.

My solution is mandatory self isolation for highest risk individuals. So those over say 60 or with any medical condition. Society to help with delivers to them in a manner not to risk exposure. Pilot trialed mass infection in contiguous small locations, with individuals to self isolate for the average recovery time. If data proves promising, ie low bad outcomes which I expect, then expand to whole cities and then nationally.

In 2-3months the problem could be nearly completely gone.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby StillLovinIt » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 am

kiteykitekite, nothing wrong with thinking about alternative solutions but something tells me experts have already looked at this and then abandoned it.

Unfortunately also some of the middle aged people require intensive care (see the graph below). Today they typically survive (with some exceptions such as the Chinese whistleblower who died at 33). But if the health care system is overwhelmed most of these patients will also die and the total number of deaths would be staggering.

And of course it would be nice to run a small scale pilot but how on earth can you really ensure that absolutely nobody enters or leaves the pilot area? When China isolated Hubei it was considered draconian.

Also, properly isolating people at risk in a freedom loving country such as the US is very, very challenging. And how can we ensure that those nurses who feed and wash the elderly in nursing homes are not contagious if there are no tests available?

Image source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2172N8
HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS.jpeg
kiteykitekite wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:07 am
Of course we can always have done better. I didn't want to come off that way. This is still a fast evolving situation, and the wrong thing would be to do nothing. We know from Italy how that would go. We need to consider other solutions. Unlike China who was first and going quite blind into this, we are now more informed. China is just as vulnerable as when it started, they only delayed things. In fact China might be more vulnerable now, because of the conditions the first lock down has created.

One thing the Government and I think Trump in particular got right was the early travel ban on China. Sure things are not going so well now but if we just continue they will be much worse in a few ways. Our hospitals will be over loaded and god help if you need them for anything. Hope you don't have an accident like in a car or kiting. I 100% am in the camp with Trump that the cure can't be worse than the disease though. We need alternative thinking, which I offered. We can only sustain short lockdowns. They need to be targeted. Individuals that are at the highest risk to this should completely isolate. Society should support them in this. Then society needs immunity. Delaying the virus amongst those that will have little problems to it is just increasing the length of time and risk to those that will have problems from it.

My solution is mandatory self isolation for highest risk individuals. So those over say 60 or with any medical condition. Society to help with delivers to them in a manner not to risk exposure. Pilot trialed mass infection in contiguous small locations, with individuals to self isolate for the average recovery time. If data proves promising, ie low bad outcomes which I expect, then expand to whole cities and then nationally.

In 2-3months the problem could be nearly completely gone.
Last edited by StillLovinIt on Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Bille
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby Bille » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 am

Hope you guys are getting some exercise ? I know of dancers that
stopped dancing ; sometimes they end up getting overweight.

Bille
Last edited by Bille on Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby Pemba » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:27 am

kiteykitekite wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:48 pm
Mark my words much of these isolation orders are far too early. They will only delay the peak and their damage will be greater than had they not been enacted. Two scenarios isolation continues beyond 3 weeks and damage from them is huge, virus may be reset 3 months. In 3months the same situation is presented, maybe a vaccine is ready though. Other scenario is for under 3 weeks and the virus is reset maybe 1 month. No vaccine certainly and we likely will need to isolate again. Best scenario is to isolate all vulnerable with deliveries etc for food, avoiding all other contact. Then allow the rest of society to continue as is, while maximizing infection rate especially among the least vulnerable, ie children. In maybe 3-4months infection will be mostly gone with 80% plus percent of the population having immunity.

This is not new, for diseases like the various measles and chickenpox, children used to be intentionally infected because they could handle it best when young and then gain lifetime immunity. This virus is pathetic compared to them.

The alternative is we allow the current economic damage to continue, which likely will cause a depression, which will likely also cause a world war.

China has the right idea now they are no longer testing and largely just ignoring the virus. They tried isolation and it nearly collapsed their country.

Lock up and isolate the old and sick. Get back to work, let the virus roll and help it along as quickly as we can. We will survive this just fine.
There's some question about lasting effects no ? At this point I really wouldn't want to be part of the group that infection is maximized on. China is not just ignoring the virus, they are starting to manage to control it. At least that's what we think/hope. It seems most countries follow the same pattern, as more infections appear and more people die, more restrictions are put in place. I guess an economic price can be put on lives. After two weeks of quarantine, Italy was still seeing a record number of deaths every day, the rest of the world seems to be following. I think it's a bit early at this point to start talking about lifting restrictions after three weeks. But you might be right.

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby iriejohn » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:33 am

The latest research in the UK indicates that the most significant comorbidity for CORVID-19 is having a BMI of over 25. In other words, being overweight or obese.

https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-New ... h-Covid-19

This is what the CDC says about the USA. Not difficult to see the significance of this in the COVID-19 epidemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html

For decades the UK has been tracking (with a lag) the USA obesity epidemic.

The origins of this obesity epidemic were first identified by the British research scientist John Yudkin, described in his book "Pure, White and Deadly". Published in 1972, it was widely rubbished by the food industry.

Later research by Robert Lustig, Professor of Pediatrics at the University of California, proved Yudkin was right, as Lustig described in his book "Fat Chance".
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby UKSurf » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:56 am

kiteykitekite wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:07 am
My solution is mandatory self isolation for highest risk individuals. So those over say 60 or with any medical condition. Society to help with delivers to them in a manner not to risk exposure. Pilot trialed mass infection in contiguous small locations, with individuals to self isolate for the average recovery time. If data proves promising, ie low bad outcomes which I expect, then expand to whole cities and then nationally.

In 2-3months the problem could be nearly completely gone.
Question is how many people would it kill or seriously damage their organs, I think until we know exactly how dangerous this disease it is best to be cautious. In 8 weeks I am sure a lot more will be known just how lethal it is and just how many people will have damaged lungs for the rest of their lives after they recover. If it is a low % then it may be worth the risk given the world cant stay on lockdown forever.
Last edited by UKSurf on Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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