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Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

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purdyd
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby purdyd » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:47 pm

marlboroughman wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:02 pm
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... -and-other
Sure the fact that the U.K. has 1200 deaths could be explained by estimating that only .01% die from the disease and thus 12million already had it a week or two ago.

That doesn’t seem to agree with the data that we have nor does it explain the complete overload of the healthcare system in Italy, China, Spain, and New York.

Unfortunately, Germany is creeping back slowly to the norm of 1% fatality and I pray for Toby and his mother.

I do agree with this from the article you cited.
Recent data from Hong Kong and Singapore suggest extreme social distancing is hard to keep up, says Gabriel Leung, a modeler at the University of Hong Kong. Both cities are seeing an uptick in cases that he thinks stem at least in part from “response fatigue.” “We were the poster children because we started early. And we went quite heavy,” Leung says. Now, “It's 2 months already, and people are really getting very tired.” He thinks both cities may be on the brink of a “major sustained local outbreak”.

Long lockdowns to slow a disease can also have catastrophic economic impacts that may themselves affect public health. “It’s a three-way tussle,” Leung says, “between protecting health, protecting the economy, and protecting people’s well-being and emotional health.”

The economic fallout isn’t something epidemic models address, Longini says—but that may have to change. “We should probably hook up with some economic modelers and try to factor that in,” he says.
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby pierre.d » Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:27 pm

all my support to your mother toby
I have been fighting with my parents like hell three weeks ago to completely isolate them from the word
I recommend everybody to do the same, if they can , I know it is not easy...
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby UKSurf » Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:33 pm

pierre.d wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:27 pm
all my support to your mother toby
I have been fighting with my parents like hell three weeks ago to completely isolate them from the word
I recommend everybody to do the same, if they can , I know it is not easy...
People throughout history have survived far worse outbreaks with self isolation. Pope Clement VI survived the black death in the 14th Century (that killed 50% of the population of Europe) by isolating himself and in addition to that surrounding himself with fire that burnt 24/7 :o

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby revhed » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:06 pm

Toby wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:25 pm
My mother, 80, and healthy, is just on her way to the hospital....
Some good news for this bad news hopefully. :allbegood:
Germany is a country that in general "works" and because the peak of the bell curve is not even close to being there,
should mean intensive care available if needed! Ventilator in particular.
Prayers sent your and your families way! :remybussi:
I have and read of quite a few older folks beating this shit just fine, yours will be the same. :thumb:
God speed
R H
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby revhed » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:11 pm

jumptheshark wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:41 pm
It is unlikely any of us are going to come away from this without direct loss.
I unfortunately agree, already know of those cherished ill. :cry:
R H

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby kiteykitekite » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:54 pm

marlboroughman wrote: Pandemic under control in China?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... -reopening
China.....what can be said? They have yet to experience the full wrath of what they have created, as they vainly try to dodge it.

While
marlboroughman wrote: “All models are wrong, but some are useful”
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... -and-other
The Dutch show their superior genes :-)
Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus among the groups least at risk of severe illness while making sure the health system isn’t swamped
Who is going to be first out of this mess with herd immunity? I.e. where are the up and coming safe travel destinations? So far the Netherlands, Sweden and much of Asia(except the Chinese parts).

Interesting website that is. This on masks https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... w-pandemic

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby a99 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:31 pm

Best tool for big air tricks practicing during lockdown https://m.facebook.com/groups/310784309 ... highlights

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby matth » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:36 am

a99 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:25 pm
Last weekend in usa were 60k infected, this weekend 127k, next will be around 200k, after next 400k. Is is exponental tendency. So after one month will be definitely near 1 milion of they will not close country totally. It means 3-6 percents of deaths - what will be around 40k. I think after 1-2 months in usa will be lot more tragic situation than in Italy.
I don't think so, but no one knows.. America is pretty darn good at what it does The wheels are in motion with supplies, hospital beds, respirators, check points, test and much more, including some promising treatments...If we all follow the rules of travel, social distancing, handwashing and other safety measures we will beat this thing..

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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby POACHER » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:31 am

The frightening thing for me in the States is the huge group of people that aren't taking this seriously. Young and old carrying about like this is a democratic setup, a big hoax or nothing more severe than the flu. Honestly do people not watch the news, read multi source info online or listen to the brilliant scientists when they speak?

Where I live is a huge tourist destination for wealthy Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison and retirees from everywhere. Our population explodes in about a month and a half with all these people converging on a small town with a very underwhelming medical facility. Our two counties issued notices for non permanent residents to refrain from coming here due to inundating the health care. The last two weeks I've seen more out of state license plates than I do in June....order ignored.

Due to financial burdens, I know my employers want to reopen sooner than recommended. I'm not concerned for my health but for that of my young children not being able to get emergency care and my retired parents that live here. I honestly can't even imagine what the next two months are going to be like...

My regards to your Mom Toby. I hope she is going to be OK. 🤞
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Re: Covid-19 - How does it affect your kite-life?

Postby iriejohn » Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:43 am

Until a transmission rate of less than 1 is reached the virus will spread. The USA is subject to exactly the same rules of epidemiology as everyone else. It will run its course now or later. Unless and until an effective vaccine is widely available, those who now successfully suppress the level of infections will see later outbreaks.
Last edited by iriejohn on Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.


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