Really ? You would be willing to sacrifice the lives of your vulnerable family members for the sake of losing a season's kiting ?
And therein lies the problem. Not completely locked down. Compare that with New Zealand's 'go early, go hard' approach. Total shutdown for five weeks that was begun early in the outbreak (March, with no deaths, just a few cases, but a scary growth curve) before the contagion really took hold. The result ? Currently NZ has recorded 22 deaths total, has 22 active cases (all from repatriation flights and hopefully safely quarantined at the border), and, most importantly, weeks of 0 cases of community transmission. This means that NZ's domestic economy is now totally wide open (this is the concept that people advocating opening up too early do not seem to grasp), export economy (with the exception of international tourism which is totally shut down) is up and running, kitesurfing possible any where any time (with enough neoprene ), and a trip to the supermarket does not involve masks or risk of dying. Not a bad trade off.
The part in bold is the most important and completely absurd way of looking at things. By that logic we can also get rid of all deaths in traffic by reducing the speed limit to 10kmh. Every single day we accept "sacrificing" lives - Covid-19 is nothing different in that sense.pākihiroa wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:20 amReally ? You would be willing to sacrifice the lives of your vulnerable family members for the sake of losing a season's kiting ?
And therein lies the problem. Not completely locked down. Compare that with New Zealand's 'go early, go hard' approach. Total shutdown for five weeks that was begun early in the outbreak (March, with no deaths, just a few cases, but a scary growth curve) before the contagion really took hold. The result ? Currently NZ has recorded 22 deaths total, has 22 active cases (all from repatriation flights and hopefully safely quarantined at the border), and, most importantly, weeks of 0 cases of community transmission. This means that NZ's domestic economy is now totally wide open (this is the concept that people advocating opening up too early do not seem to grasp), export economy (with the exception of international tourism which is totally shut down) is up and running, kitesurfing possible any where any time (with enough neoprene ), and a trip to the supermarket does not involve masks or risk of dying. Not a bad trade off.
And if cases do slip through the border, then there is a good chance of containing them with aggressive local action. This is what China is now being forced to do with it's current 'spike' in Beijing, and they are not messing around, eg:
Beijing is ~10 new cases per day (0.5 per million population per day) and performing 25 tests/1000 people per day.
US is at 30,000 new cases per day (100 per million population per day) and performing 1.6 tests/1000 people per day. It did not have to be this way.
NZ is at 0 new cases per day (0.0 per million population per day) and performing 1.5 tests/1000 people per day (mainly for anyone with a runny nose or a sore throat).
Admittedly, the NZ strategy is a delaying tactic. It relies on holding out long enough for an effective therapy or vaccine to be developed. But it can always give up and revert to the Swedish model if need be.
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