Mossy 757 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:09 pm
Matteo V wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:22 pm
So why, in 2020, did we suddenly decide that doubling or tripling a small chance suddenly gave this virus a special place in our psychology?
Imagine if the headline was, "the same exact flu from last year is entirely unchanged, but THIS year we expect an additional 190,000-250,000 Americans to die from the virus. There has been absolutely nothing changed other than our predictions are double the death count and quadruple the infection rate versus last flu season. Our recommendation therefore is that the nation adopt increased hygiene protocols, quarantine where practicable, and practice social distancing in all settings to limit unnecessary spread so that those 200-250k people don't have to die unnecessarily."
If that were the headline, what would that mean to you?
Headlines mean nothing to me. I take the time to examine the reality of the situation, not the sensationalism that has presented to hook you into reading, buying, or swallowing a false narrative. So let's get into why the bastardization of statistics is completely misleading and used so often by those who have an agenda.
First, let's take your numbers, and present them as statistics.
'Imagine if the headline was, "the same exact flu from last year is entirely unchanged, but THIS year we expect an additional .06% to .08% Americans to die from the virus.'
The reality is that on average every person only has an additional .08% chance of dying this year. This is a headline you will not see because no one will give a crap about it!
Second, if it's the number that is important and shows how deadly and dangerous the virus is, then that virus would be much more dangerous if we hypothetically moved all of the people on Earth to the United States. In that case we could expect 62 million people to die with the virus in the United States. Does that mean the virus has become more deadly? Does that mean you have a higher individual risk of dying from the virus? Does that mean we should do more about saving those additional lives?
Conversely, if the population of the United States is reduced two 1/8 of what it actually is (328,000,000 * .125 = 41,000,000), what would be the death toll? The answer for total additional deaths in the U.S. with 1/8 the current population is 32,800. Does that mean that the virus is less deadly? Does that mean you have a lower individual risk of dying from the virus? Does that mean we should do less about the virus because less will actually die from the virus? If you answer yes to this, then best way to combat the viruses lethality is to reduce the population for it to kill. This wouldn't make any sense unless you're an idiot!
Then add to that the fact that covid-19 deaths are being attributed to covid-19 when other factors were the actual cause of those deaths. Essentially we are comparing the under-inflated statistics of other virus comorbidity to the over-inflated statistics of covid-19 comorbidity. What would this do to the statistics above? It would slightly reduce
the slight chance
that you have of dying from covid-19 vs. another virus.
The sensationalism of media seems like it's extremely effective for the lower intelligence masses. I do have faith that your average individual is capable of understanding how they are being swayed buy a manipulation of the absolute basic statistics which anyone should have a grasp of. But yet you get someone, actually a large number of people, who will defend statistics that have been misrepresented to the point they show the opposite of the reality. And some people will hold them on high, and beat down anyone who uses logic and reason to debunk the lies and misdirection.