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Foreigners going to Brasil please read

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Mossy 757
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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Mossy 757 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:37 pm

Havre wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:59 pm
a bunch of jpeg images specific to Sweden without any citations or research supporting a variety of colored squiggly lines
Did you read the article I posted? Like, did you ingest the contents of the "Discussion" section? I'm just curious, before you submitted your response did you invest your time in finding out if there's valuable information you should know about the topic?

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Havre » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:54 pm

Mossy 757 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:37 pm
Havre wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:59 pm
a bunch of jpeg images specific to Sweden without any citations or research supporting a variety of colored squiggly lines
Did you read the article I posted? Like, did you ingest the contents of the "Discussion" section? I'm just curious, before you submitted your response did you invest your time in finding out if there's valuable information you should know about the topic?
You are saying the quote you supplied is fake?

Obviously I know it isn't because I read the article.

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Matteo V » Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:22 pm

Blackened wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:04 am
Matteo V wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:04 am

You have dodged nearly every challenge I have made to you. The underlying psychology of this is what I am interested in understanding. Can you help me with that. Or do you truly believe that "go write a paper" is a genuine response to a challenge.
You haven't made any challenges. You said something that implied a very complex situation was exceptionally simple and obvious. I asked for history and research. Here is your original statement:
Matteo V wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:04 am

"Never before have we treated a new strain of virus with a less than 5% or so mortality rate in this manner. The elderly, or sick and already dying, have never before had their comorbidity ignored in favor of one of the hundreds of viruses that would have killed them anyway. Again I ask, what has changed?"

I don't know what has changed. Based on your research in epidemiology and pandemics of the 20th century, you can answer it for all of us. Would you provide a detailed analysis with citations on what is different about this virus and why or why shouldn't we be treating it differently? Thank you. I look forward to reading it.
If you buy a lottery ticket, you have a small chance of winning. But if you buy 2 lottery tickets, you double your chances, right? If you buy 10 lottery tickets, you have 10 times the chance of winning! Does that mean you will win? What that means is that even with double, triple, or 10 times the chance, you still don't have a significant chance.

Most people are not critical enough thinkers to get this concept on their own. So why, in 2020, did we suddenly decide that doubling or tripling a small chance suddenly gave this virus a special place in our psychology? Because there were many viruses, and even lots of flu viruses that were many more times deadly than other flu viruses. But there was no crazy reaction to those on par with what we are seeing today with covid-19 . Are we that easily manipulated by the propaganda? Or is it just bound to happen at some point, that we lose our common sense and rationality regarding getting sick?

And the data that we already have shows this. It's math and statistics! You don't need to have a paper written on it, as it's obvious and there is a hard break from 2019 to 2020 in the mentality, not the virology.

Mossy 757
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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Mossy 757 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:09 pm

Havre wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:54 pm
Mossy 757 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:37 pm
Havre wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:59 pm
a bunch of jpeg images specific to Sweden without any citations or research supporting a variety of colored squiggly lines
Did you read the article I posted? Like, did you ingest the contents of the "Discussion" section? I'm just curious, before you submitted your response did you invest your time in finding out if there's valuable information you should know about the topic?
You are saying the quote you supplied is fake?

Obviously I know it isn't because I read the article.
Not at all, what I'm asking is if you read the article because it is nowhere near a slam-dunk on my part to simply quote that one line from the discussion. There is much ambiguity in the data, and I would have thought that you would have wanted to continue the dialogue around some of the open question the study proposes...instead you threw up a couple images from some totally unrelated shit instead of responding.

So I posted something that claims to take a large, 50-nation view of the situation where the conclusion is that lockdown, masks, distancing, etc. are good things. And I assume that's something you disagree with based on your posting in this thread.

Instead of telling me why that study is wrong, or the conclusions in there support your point as well, or really engaging in any way...you posted those pictures, which honestly seem to only apply to 1 or 2 countries versus a meta-analysis of 50. It was a non-sequitor response to an attempt to engage you with evidence that contradicts the claim you made.
Matteo V wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:22 pm
So why, in 2020, did we suddenly decide that doubling or tripling a small chance suddenly gave this virus a special place in our psychology?
Imagine if the headline was, "the same exact flu from last year is entirely unchanged, but THIS year we expect an additional 190,000-250,000 Americans to die from the virus. There has been absolutely nothing changed other than our predictions are double the death count and quadruple the infection rate versus last flu season. Our recommendation therefore is that the nation adopt increased hygiene protocols, quarantine where practicable, and practice social distancing in all settings to limit unnecessary spread so that those 200-250k people don't have to die unnecessarily."

If that were the headline, what would that mean to you? Would you follow those recommendations? Would you make sure to get your annual vaccine when it was made available?

Maybe to more specifically answer your point, the thing that changed this year from last is that in 2020 we saw a new pathogen with unknown epidemiological properties enter the population and begin triggering chronic illness and increased rate of death among at-risk populations. Just like any other pathogen, known or unknown, we need to behave differently now to account for this changed risk profile.

An added variable with this novel coronavirus is that it can be transmitted for several days before the individual knows they are sick, or without them being aware they have come into contact with a sick person. This means that at-risk populations and folks with existing comorbidities can become infected more easily than in diseases that present symptoms around the same time they become transmissable to other people. This is a HUGE factor in what's unique about our response this time. You can be infectious, spend a week out of the country, and only present significant symptoms by the time you're returning back. That is very very different than pathogens like influenza and ebola.

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Havre » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:39 pm

Mossy 757 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:09 pm
Havre wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:54 pm
Mossy 757 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:37 pm


Did you read the article I posted? Like, did you ingest the contents of the "Discussion" section? I'm just curious, before you submitted your response did you invest your time in finding out if there's valuable information you should know about the topic?
You are saying the quote you supplied is fake?

Obviously I know it isn't because I read the article.
Not at all, what I'm asking is if you read the article because it is nowhere near a slam-dunk on my part to simply quote that one line from the discussion. There is much ambiguity in the data, and I would have thought that you would have wanted to continue the dialogue around some of the open question the study proposes...instead you threw up a couple images from some totally unrelated shit instead of responding.

So I posted something that claims to take a large, 50-nation view of the situation where the conclusion is that lockdown, masks, distancing, etc. are good things. And I assume that's something you disagree with based on your posting in this thread.

Instead of telling me why that study is wrong, or the conclusions in there support your point as well, or really engaging in any way...you posted those pictures, which honestly seem to only apply to 1 or 2 countries versus a meta-analysis of 50. It was a non-sequitor response to an attempt to engage you with evidence that contradicts the claim you made.
As I said time will tell. My initial statement still stands about lockdowns - and that article doesn't change that.

Blablabla more moaning. I showed graphs that support my position on lockdowns. I thought that was pretty obvious.

You would like us to "continue the dialogue" by mocking me by "googling this for me"? Adds a lot of credibility to your "continue the dialogue". But if you really want to have one I'm all for it.

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Matteo V » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:09 pm

Mossy 757 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:09 pm
Matteo V wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:22 pm
So why, in 2020, did we suddenly decide that doubling or tripling a small chance suddenly gave this virus a special place in our psychology?
Imagine if the headline was, "the same exact flu from last year is entirely unchanged, but THIS year we expect an additional 190,000-250,000 Americans to die from the virus. There has been absolutely nothing changed other than our predictions are double the death count and quadruple the infection rate versus last flu season. Our recommendation therefore is that the nation adopt increased hygiene protocols, quarantine where practicable, and practice social distancing in all settings to limit unnecessary spread so that those 200-250k people don't have to die unnecessarily."

If that were the headline, what would that mean to you?
Headlines mean nothing to me. I take the time to examine the reality of the situation, not the sensationalism that has presented to hook you into reading, buying, or swallowing a false narrative. So let's get into why the bastardization of statistics is completely misleading and used so often by those who have an agenda.


First, let's take your numbers, and present them as statistics.

'Imagine if the headline was, "the same exact flu from last year is entirely unchanged, but THIS year we expect an additional .06% to .08% Americans to die from the virus.'

The reality is that on average every person only has an additional .08% chance of dying this year. This is a headline you will not see because no one will give a crap about it!


Second, if it's the number that is important and shows how deadly and dangerous the virus is, then that virus would be much more dangerous if we hypothetically moved all of the people on Earth to the United States. In that case we could expect 62 million people to die with the virus in the United States. Does that mean the virus has become more deadly? Does that mean you have a higher individual risk of dying from the virus? Does that mean we should do more about saving those additional lives?

Conversely, if the population of the United States is reduced two 1/8 of what it actually is (328,000,000 * .125 = 41,000,000), what would be the death toll? The answer for total additional deaths in the U.S. with 1/8 the current population is 32,800. Does that mean that the virus is less deadly? Does that mean you have a lower individual risk of dying from the virus? Does that mean we should do less about the virus because less will actually die from the virus? If you answer yes to this, then best way to combat the viruses lethality is to reduce the population for it to kill. This wouldn't make any sense unless you're an idiot!

Then add to that the fact that covid-19 deaths are being attributed to covid-19 when other factors were the actual cause of those deaths. Essentially we are comparing the under-inflated statistics of other virus comorbidity to the over-inflated statistics of covid-19 comorbidity. What would this do to the statistics above? It would slightly reduce the slight chance that you have of dying from covid-19 vs. another virus.


The sensationalism of media seems like it's extremely effective for the lower intelligence masses. I do have faith that your average individual is capable of understanding how they are being swayed buy a manipulation of the absolute basic statistics which anyone should have a grasp of. But yet you get someone, actually a large number of people, who will defend statistics that have been misrepresented to the point they show the opposite of the reality. And some people will hold them on high, and beat down anyone who uses logic and reason to debunk the lies and misdirection.

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Exal » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:58 pm

Matteo V wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:09 pm

The reality is that on average every person only has an additional .08% chance of dying this year.
For the f*** of it let's say it is 1%, ignore that you can spread the thing and whatever! I have 101 cards and if you draw one you will get 5000 of the finest americano dollarinos with the exception of two cards, one will kill you and one will cause you permanent lung damage, will you pick a card? :naughty:

(math obviously flawed but you get the idea)

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Matteo V » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:35 am

Exal wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:58 pm
Matteo V wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:09 pm

The reality is that on average every person only has an additional .08% chance of dying this year.
For the f*** of it let's say it is 1%, ignore that you can spread the thing and whatever! I have 101 cards and if you draw one you will get 5000 of the finest americano dollarinos with the exception of two cards, one will kill you and one will cause you permanent lung damage, will you pick a card? :naughty:

(math obviously flawed but you get the idea)
Seems like you had that talking Barbie that said 'Math is hard.' Do you know the difference between .08% .1% and 1%? And I'm not trying to berate you, but you do share a seemingly normal inability to understand basic math, with your average person.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... ZnF220xvwt

So .08% and .1% are pretty close and .08% could reasonably be rounded up to .1%

.1% should not, and cannot, unless you are an idiot, be rounded up to 1%.

So no, presenting an example in a statistical way, and then admiting that the math is "obviously flawed"............. you know........I don't know if there is actually a word for that. Can you think of one?

Oh, and I will give you a star for conscientiousness as you did take the time to censor your explicative.

Oh, and you may want to remove that Wise Guy emoji as it does not seem to fit with your post anymore.

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Daversj » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:10 am

Not sure what this argument has to do with Brazil but math is easy.

6 million tested infections in the US AND 190k deaths....overall US death rate of infected is 3%

“3.6 Roentgen, not great, but not terrible”

If you’re old or sick your chance of dying from infection is likely higher than 3%, if you're young and healthy much less.

Pretty simple math.

The numbers could be off a little but as the sample gets larger the numbers get more accurate. Treatments have evolved so the death rate is likely trending slightly down as well.

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Re: Foreigners going to Brasil please read

Postby Matteo V » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:37 pm

Daversj wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:10 am
Not sure what this argument has to do with Brazil but math is easy.

6 million tested infections in the US AND 190k deaths....overall US death rate of infected is 3%

“3.6 Roentgen, not great, but not terrible”.....


.....Pretty simple math.
"6million TESTED infections..." That is the mechanism which you have employed to twist the statistics. The ammount of infections not tested for, and thus unknown, can only be guessed at. And with the asymptomatic infection rate being likely 80%, your 3% claim should be cut down to .05%. And that is still likely high as it includes those previously ill patients who died "with" Covid19, not "from" it.

But thanks for showing that there is this type of mentality among the extremists in Covid19 scare mongers.


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