How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

[Havre]

Quite common for us in QAnon to wear a helmet. So don't blame us.

[iriejohn]

The probability of *any individual roll* coming up a particular number is identical, it's 1/6. This is key. Each individual roll has absolutely nothing to do with any other roll, they're completely individual events.

As you saw, I said this ^^^ earlier in this thread.

The reason he is unable to get his head around this is that he applies determinism to everything he does.

At a guess he is probably also unable to get his head around the fact that probabilities are multiplicative.

[knotwindy]

Nah, although he would prefer to be right, I think he just likes to argue. He probably thinks that thinking is the only way to be happy.

[PullStrings]

Mr. Dice the 5th read up and learn for once.
(Probability is that you won't) Ha ha.....your reaction will be identical.

Yes
This is correct Tkar.
Each individual session has absolutely nothing to do with any other session, they're completely individual sessions.

This started because of the stats: 4000 days of kiting there was 0 times that my head even got close of being hit.

So kiting 4000 more times in the next 22 years the odds of dying from not having a helmet does not increase.

[Matteo V]

So kiting 4000 more times in the next 22 years the odds of dying from not having a helmet does not increase.

Each individual roll of the dice has a fixed probability of the bad number coming up that one time.

Each set of rolls has a much higher chance of that bad number coming up once.

This is a simple concept in statistics that apparently you, and others haven't grasped????

And the data collection, in the case of a helmet preventing your death, stops once you have the bad number come up.

It's the same as Russian Roulette. Past success does not indicate future success. And just because you spun the wheel 10 times and are still alive, does nut mean you can do that for another 10, 20, or 30 times and survive.

[Matteo V]

If you had to walk across a minefield for a mile, and you made it through the first half of the minefield, it doesn't make the second half of the minefield more dangerous, and if you get all the way across the minefield it doesn't make the final step the most likely one to kill you, it just means you *already made it through* most of the dangerous part, even if you were already lucky when that happened. The last step is not more dangerous than the first one or any of the middle ones.

You are making this too easy, and I LOVE the minefield analogy!

The probability of each individual step is fixed. But we are not talking about adding only one step, but rather another 4000 steps.

For your analysis to be true,the likelihood of stepping on a mine in 1 mile would be the same as in 2 miles, and minefields wouldn't work.


And this has nothing to do with me being correct, but rather that the reality has been explained.

[PullStrings]

If i keep doing what i'm doing
I'll keep getting what i'm getting
No head bashed in and death.

Isn't that insane !?
Aren't you blown away ?
If so...yank on the QR asap.
You won't need your helmet i promise.
You are no rookie.
You have learned all the ways to ride safe.
You just need encouragement.

Ahhhh the wind in my hair.

Mr. Quote V
You're up
Go for it.

[Matteo V]

If i keep doing what i'm doing
I'll keep getting what i'm getting
No head bashed in and death.

Isn't that insane !?
Aren't you blown away ?
If so...yank on the QR asap.
You won't need your helmet i promise.
You are no rookie.
You have learned all the ways to ride safe.
You just need encouragement.

Ahhhh the wind in my hair.

Mr. Quote V
You're up
Go for it.

Honestly and sincerely, I wish you the best, and I wish you good luck.

[jumptheshark]

It struck me today as I finished up a killer post rain, sunny soul sesh that I get hit in the head by my foil board almost every time out. Kite/harness in one hand foil over my shoulder, that moment when your nose gets itchy and you balance your foil on your shoulder to scratch it? Gets me almost every time!

[Beanie008]

So kiting 4000 more times in the next 22 years the odds of dying from not having a helmet does not increase.

Each individual roll of the dice has a fixed probability of the bad number coming up that one time.

Each set of rolls has a much higher chance of that bad number coming up once.

This is a simple concept in statistics that apparently you, and others haven't grasped????

I think the message that Matteo is trying to get across is the Law of Large Numbers and if this is the case then he is correct in his statement.

What I am having trouble with (as a sports science statistician) is setting the probability of a fatal kite surfing accident to the head as 1 in 6 using the 6-sided die throw analogy....