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How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

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bragnouff
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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby bragnouff » Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:50 am

That example of rolling a dice was just to illustrate base concepts of probabilities.
Law of Large Numbers will indeed state that in the upcoming 4000 sessions, it is quite likely that the shit is gonna hit the fan somehow. But at the same time, the odds of the shit hitting the fan on your next session are not affected in any way by what happened or didn't happen in your previous thousands of sessions.

If the event has a very tiny probability, it could well be that it's only likely to happen after, say a million sessions. In which case, your Large Number of 4000 isn't Large enough to be meaningful... Rule of the game is to understand that probability of a severe event, and reduce it to a level where it is very unlikely to happen despite a real-life large number of sessions.
That severe event could be a combination of events. The wind suddenly increased AND you were close to rocks AND your QR malfunctioned AND you were upside down AND...
No one really has the answer to that.
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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby Sarda » Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:19 pm

With due diligence, better training/ behaviour etc. Is the risk reduced further?

Is PPE the least effective method of hazard control?

Why is that?

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby Matteo V » Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:43 pm

bragnouff wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:50 am
If the event has a very tiny probability, it could well be that it's only likely to happen after, say a million sessions. In which case, your Large Number of 4000 isn't Large enough to be meaningful... Rule of the game is to understand that probability of a severe event, and reduce it to a level where it is very unlikely to happen despite a real-life large number of sessions.
That severe event could be a combination of events. The wind suddenly increased AND you were close to rocks AND your QR malfunctioned AND you were upside down AND...
No one really has the answer to that.
Look at the number of deaths that would have been prevented had a helmet been worn by the victim, as this thread was begun because of one of those.

Also, those that hit hard enough to split open a helmet, or were knocked out even with a helmet, should be examined.


I make no claims as to the specific probability, but I can state with utter surety that some lives would have been saved had they been wearing helmets. In order to get to a probability, circumstances of the fatalities would need to be examined, tallied, and the resulting probability verified.

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby Matteo V » Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:05 pm

Sarda wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:19 pm
With due diligence, better training/ behaviour etc. Is the risk reduced further?

Is PPE the least effective method of hazard control?

Why is that?
Depends on what the PPE is, and how it is used.

But nearly everyone in the PPE industry acknowledges that no single risk reduction method should be relied upon. Multiple methods always have a higher reduction of risk. So for pulley to rely on being careful alone, is more risky than being careful and wearing a helmet.

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby PullStrings » Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:34 pm

Mr. Excedrin V

Look at the number of deaths that would have been prevented had a QR been activated quickly by the victim.
That is where you look first.

Here.
Not relying on being careful alone.
Got my functioning QR.
Got my reflexes at the first sign of kite misbehaving whether visually or by feel.
Risks are all considered. Zero chances taken.
Some will say a quick prayer asking to keep them safe.
Much more value then covering one's head.
Staying calm and alert.

Breathe man breathe.

With your expertise i am convinced that you have outgrown the need for covering your coconut.

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby Beanie008 » Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:58 pm

bragnouff wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:50 am
That example of rolling a dice was just to illustrate base concepts of probabilities.
Law of Large Numbers will indeed state that in the upcoming 4000 sessions, it is quite likely that the shit is gonna hit the fan somehow. But at the same time, the odds of the shit hitting the fan on your next session are not affected in any way by what happened or didn't happen in your previous thousands of sessions.

If the event has a very tiny probability, it could well be that it's only likely to happen after, say a million sessions. In which case, your Large Number of 4000 isn't Large enough to be meaningful... Rule of the game is to understand that probability of a severe event, and reduce it to a level where it is very unlikely to happen despite a real-life large number of sessions.
That severe event could be a combination of events. The wind suddenly increased AND you were close to rocks AND your QR malfunctioned AND you were upside down AND...
No one really has the answer to that.
Sorry but your use of the theorem is not correct and the rest is just gobbledegook...Sports statisticians do have answers and how that begins is with understanding the field of play. The reason why I say 'gobbledegook' to the above is not to offend but simply to imply that the rules of the game in any sport are not to focus on disaster but to elevate performance to such a level where those errors are greatly reduced.

Like I said in another discussion, I have enjoyed sitting back and reading what goes on in KF so far.

Carry on the discussion I'll fetch another coffee :D

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby Sarda » Sat Jun 19, 2021 8:56 pm

Matteo V wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:05 pm
Sarda wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:19 pm
With due diligence, better training/ behaviour etc. Is the risk reduced further?

Is PPE the least effective method of hazard control?

Why is that?
Depends on what the PPE is, and how it is used.

But nearly everyone in the PPE industry acknowledges that no single risk reduction method should be relied upon. Multiple methods always have a higher reduction of risk. So for pulley to rely on being careful alone, is more risky than being careful and wearing a helmet.
What does any of that which you have googled? made up? Overheard from an idiot etc remotely have to do with ISO related questions?
What ISO do those questions currently come from?
What new ISO will cover it?
When does it come into effect?


Are you a representative of the "ppe industry" to make the statement
"But nearly everyone in the PPE industry acknowledges that no single risk reduction method should be relied upon. Multiple methods always have a higher reduction of risk."

Where did you come up with that? Google, possibly in context to something very specific? A blog? a morally devoid ppe salesman?thin air? an idiot?




Is guessing or fabricating fictions a good substitute for acquired knowledge, understanding and experience (all documented)?
Why is that?
Until such a time as that "that" changes is there any point in further discussion?

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby vannibombonato » Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:28 pm

How do you guys think this topic will ever end?

I'm no administrator, but there's a reason a "lock" function exists for internet forums.

Just a suggestion.

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby FLandOBX » Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:41 pm

vannibombonato wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:28 pm
How do you guys think this topic will ever end?

I'm no administrator, but there's a reason a "lock" function exists for internet forums.

Just a suggestion.
Here's my suggestion. Use the "Friends and Foes" feature. I've added only two people to my "Foes" list in the past seven years. One is "Air Bunny" (remember??). Guess who the other one is. Makes reading the forum soooooo much more enjoyable. :thumb:

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Re: How to turn a topic about a fatality into an absurd helmet discussion

Postby vannibombonato » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:32 am

FLandOBX wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:41 pm
vannibombonato wrote:
Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:28 pm
How do you guys think this topic will ever end?

I'm no administrator, but there's a reason a "lock" function exists for internet forums.

Just a suggestion.
Here's my suggestion. Use the "Friends and Foes" feature. I've added only two people to my "Foes" list in the past seven years. One is "Air Bunny" (remember??). Guess who the other one is. Makes reading the forum soooooo much more enjoyable. :thumb:
It's just that personally i don't see any value in anything that is being added on this topic anymore, as my opinion is that everybody has already said again and again whatever they had to say. Myself included.

I know i can simply "ignore" the thread, so it was just a suggestion. If there are people here who are seeing value being added in this thread, good for them.
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