Cumbuco, Brazil: Forecast vs Real Wind

[Leon van Bergen]

if you ever wonder why forecasts say less than the real wind, it's due to termals from the dunes. This way always more wind comes than forecasted.

How much, here you can see an example from Cumbuco (in knots):


Real Wind:

real wind.png (8.85 KiB) Viewed 1095 times

Forecast:

forecast.png (30.1 KiB) Viewed 1095 times

[rw30]

is it also the case in high kitesurfing season period? (when direction is more of E I believe?)
also, can you share direct link to this wind station from which you have a picture? or it's not online / cannot be shared?

thanks

[rw30]

or, other question:
which windguru station shows reliable results?
that one here: https://www.windguru.cz/station/2001 still seems to be couple knots below what your screen shows

[Toby]

or, other question:
which windguru station shows reliable results?
that one here: https://www.windguru.cz/station/2001 still seems to be couple knots below what your screen shows

That’s in Taiba. Normally few knots more than Cumbuco.

[Toby]

is it also the case in high kitesurfing season period? (when direction is more of E I believe?)
also, can you share direct link to this wind station from which you have a picture? or it's not online / cannot be shared?

thanks

The wind pattern is always the same, so is the direction.
Look when the wind turns toward east, the wind starts.
And that works for the whole area.

http://www.cumbuco-oceanview.com/weather/

[PabloQ]

The good thing about cumbuco that for 6 months you don't have to look at the forecast, just wash your face, have breakfast ... and go to the water!

[Havre]

Is that station new?

And is it possible to look at historical figures?

Would have been cool to see the real figures from when I was there. Those days it seemed like the forecast was extremely close to reality - as far as I could tell.

[Toby]

no, already online since many years.

No history..maybe windfinder kept the data? Don't know.

The tendency is almost always correct. Only 2 weeks ago it was a bit off, the wind didn't come thru.
But normally when some wind it forecasted, more wind comes.
Round about 6 knots can be added.

Could be another strange day today...wind not coming thru yet...maybe because of full moon and low tide...I assume it picks up anytime soon when high tide moves on.

[Toby]

here you go:

wind.png (4.64 KiB) Viewed 939 times

[rw30]

No history..maybe windfinder kept the data? Don't know.

AFAIK only windguru stations do , this is why I was asking if the one I shared before was accurate (but was told it's far from Cumbuco... which is actually indicated at windguru link ).

+ windguru keeps history of forecasts (GFS13 currently, GFS27 in the past), so, assuming there's a station with precise results, you can always compare actuals vs. forecast

Two available at Cumbuco are:
https://www.windguru.cz/station/2653
https://www.windguru.cz/station/634

any of them good Toby ? they differ by 5 knots atm so I guess one (probably the one showing weaker wind) must be wrong

just based on actual results, 1st one (Cumbuco Ocean View aparthotel) seems to be close to what Toby shared before.....hold on.... probably because it seems to be one & same station (based on hotel's name)