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climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

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Matteo V
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:27 pm

SimonP wrote:
Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:02 pm
Matteo V wrote:
Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:37 pm
False. Then why did the prediction of Florida being underwater not come true? Why do we still have snow?

Even the current climate models are run with full knowledge that there are at least more unknowns than knowns. And then there is the absolute fact that changing the known variables to anywhere within the range of uncertainty can produce warming or cooling predictions. A model that tells you two opposite answers is useless for predictions.

If you actually think the climate is simple enough to be understood with our current knowledge, then you have no understanding of the climate's complexity.
We can not accurately forecast weather more than 10 days out even with a very hi-res GCM because weather is chaotic. The analogy is a butterfly in Spain causing a hurricane in Florida.
Thank you for admitting this!

And the problems with the averages is that we dont know about the butterflies in the past, because we only have an extremely low resolution record of past conditions. And actually, we dont even track those butterflies in the present, and can only speculate on the ones we are not taking into account. - more unknowns than knowns.

Matteo V
Very Frequent Poster
Posts: 2472
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:42 pm
Local Beach: US, Iowa/Nebraska/Kansas/Utah/Oregon Coast
Favorite Beaches: Ft. Stevens, North coast of Oregon
Style: Just like school in summertime
Gear: Delta Kites and LF Kitefish QuadMod
Snowboard (Cambered and Rockered)
Foil kites on the snow
Brand Affiliation: NONE F--- the corporate world
Has thanked: 194 times
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:52 am

Still learning about the oceans.



So, no, we dont have a good handle on what is driving the key components of our climate.

slide
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby slide » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:06 am

texas has a warning of what climate change means and one hospitial 3 days without power

Matteo V
Very Frequent Poster
Posts: 2472
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:42 pm
Local Beach: US, Iowa/Nebraska/Kansas/Utah/Oregon Coast
Favorite Beaches: Ft. Stevens, North coast of Oregon
Style: Just like school in summertime
Gear: Delta Kites and LF Kitefish QuadMod
Snowboard (Cambered and Rockered)
Foil kites on the snow
Brand Affiliation: NONE F--- the corporate world
Has thanked: 194 times
Been thanked: 219 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:48 pm

slide wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:06 am
texas has a warning of what climate change means and one hospitial 3 days without power
Yeah, last week was terribly hot in Texas.........

Matteo V
Very Frequent Poster
Posts: 2472
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:42 pm
Local Beach: US, Iowa/Nebraska/Kansas/Utah/Oregon Coast
Favorite Beaches: Ft. Stevens, North coast of Oregon
Style: Just like school in summertime
Gear: Delta Kites and LF Kitefish QuadMod
Snowboard (Cambered and Rockered)
Foil kites on the snow
Brand Affiliation: NONE F--- the corporate world
Has thanked: 194 times
Been thanked: 219 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:50 pm

More variables coming in

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/18/96906356 ... lipped-out

Looks like this one could make a 1⁰ temp rise look even more like the insignificance it is.


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