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climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

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Matteo V
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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:54 am

slide wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:26 pm
i'll say it again I am prepared to have a sensible conversation but I always desends into people picking holes in my posts
So let me get this straight before I "pick any holes" in your post here.

Are you saying you are posting on a forum to tell people your beliefs, but not have your line of reasoning and evidence challenged?

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downunder
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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby downunder » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 am

Do I have a correct feeling that all challengers are in fact Americans?

Please challenge my feeling.

Thanks

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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby prop_joe » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:34 am

Correct me if i'm off here... there hasn't been too much of it in general but doesn't the majority if not all of the ignorant dumb sh*t seem to come overwhelmingly from the pro side??

... just like the real world i guess :wink:

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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:28 pm

prop_joe wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:34 am
Correct me if i'm off here... there hasn't been too much of it in general but doesn't the majority if not all of the ignorant dumb sh*t seem to come overwhelmingly from the pro side??

... just like the real world i guess :wink:

downunder wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 am
Do I have a correct feeling that all challengers are in fact Americans?

Please challenge my feeling.

Thanks
There are many things going on here - to many to cover all of them. But let me focus on a three.



First, you need to look up "tendencies" for yourself. And not just the book defintion, but also how that word is used, misused, and misunderstood. Once you have done that read on.

"Tendency" is a general statistical term denoting any where from a 51% probability to a 99% probability that something is true in a population or as a result of an experiment. But for our sake, lets just focus on how tendency can mean as little as 55-60% probability.

In the downsy's and propy's suppositions above, there is only the "tendency" for those suppositions to be true. downsy got it completely wrong when he stated "all". propy got it right when he stated "overwhelmingly".

downsy would be correct in his observations that many of the challenges to "climate change enthusiasts" come from the US. This is because of the tendency (not all, but maybe a slight maority) for US citizens to come from a background of historically successfully challenging authority and the narrative presented by an authority. The the lack of a tendency (could be as high as 49%) of challenges coming from outside the US is likely due to the tendency of those people to NOT successfully challenge authority or the narrative presented by that authority. Thus there is an observable tendency for those who do not challenge "climate change enthusiasts" from abroad where "challenging" is looked upon unfavorably, or has had drastic consequences for the population.



Second, there is an underlying psychology that downsy is presenting in his statement. And that is the tendency to assume all the bad in the world is in your enemies, and all the good is in you and those who agree with you. Thus while downsy is fairly educated, well enough to know what is wrong with saying "all" in his statement, he still had somewhat of a "Freudian slip" when he choose the word "all" instead of most or many.

But propy is somewhat wrong in his statement also. This is because he is failing to recognize that the "craziest" and "most absurd" gets the most press coverage as it stirs up discussion and increases viewership. Divisiveness sells, and those most successful in selling that divisiveness go on to succeed and sell more. Also, given the corporate press's demonstrably overwhelming tendency to support the narrative presented by "climate change enthusiasts", but because of the lack of hard evidence, most who truly believe in the scientific method remove themselves from the discussion. This leaves those who are "climate change religions fanatics" and those looking for personal gain to advocate for "climate change enthusiasts". So press bias, and the "cant look away from a train wreck happening" create the situation that propy is observing. But this apparent public image presented is not necessarily similar to the reality outside of mainstream media coverage.



Third, in countries with partial or full democracy, the government tends to cater to popular ideas and exploit those ideas for their own benefit. Given the inability of the average person just to distinguish between climate and weather, or even understand that there are some things that science cannot fully explain yet, there is a tendency for the majority of people to believe in the "gloom and doom" that "climate change enthusiasts" sell. Thus these governments see the opportunity for more power and control of their citizens in a widely believed, but unproven/currently unprovable idea. And increasing regulation and taxation, along with creating "high paying do nothing" jobs for the friends and family of those politicians, is their end goal.

In countries with a dictatorial government, the government silences all challenges to the state approved idea. Thus you will find a strong tendency of people living under dictatorial regimes to believe what is often the only source of information for the state chosen narrative allowed to reach them. And just like in western climate science, pointing out holes in the "AGW" narrative can be extremely costly to those in power pushing their narrative.

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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby marlboroughman » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:50 pm

One hell of a weather event

Image

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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Pemba » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:07 pm

Well that's the point that was made before isn't it ? floods, cyclones, droughts, extreme temperatures etc ? Fits perfectly into the believers narrative. But then: weather isn't climate, and here we go again.. Answering the question, I've kited for about 15 years and I can't say I've noticed a difference in the climate/winds. But that means very little. There's a reasonable amount of variation between years and I haven't been paying much attention. To notice a trend would require a lot of change.

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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:39 pm

Pemba wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:07 pm
Fits perfectly into the believers narrative........
So.......which one? And yes I selectively edited this one. But for an illustrative purpose......"But which one??????" That is the question. Both sides have a degree of "belief" driving them to an emotional state. The middle eschews an emotional state in the pursuit of the reality that is truly facing us. If I posses any true "belief", it is that I can provoke both sides to claim that "I" have and agenda in the middle to advance.

Moderates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLNhPMQnWu4

Matteo V
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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:51 pm

marlboroughman wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:50 pm
One hell of a weather event

Image
Look at this graph and think about how small a part of the climate that this represents. This is where the "right" goes off the deep end and where I do not hesitate to put the label on those questioning "climate change enthusiasts" as religiously fanatical (no different than the "climate change enthusiasts" themselves). Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to support the "b-t s--t crazy" on the left, I just want to call it out on the right so I can keep to the scientific method of questioning everything.


There is a third choice. It is a third option from right and left. And that "choice" is that we do not have a good handle on either side of the spectrum. It's the middle. And you are most likely far left or far right if you cannot see that.


P.S. Looks good for snowkiting the Midwest US this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last edited by Matteo V on Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:16 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Matteo V
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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:59 pm

Pemba wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:07 pm
Well that's the point that was made before isn't it ? floods, cyclones, droughts, extreme temperatures etc ? Fits perfectly into the believers narrative.......
Only when you selectively eliminate the "innocuously average" from the "anomalies".

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Re: climate change /unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Pemba » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:20 am

Matteo V wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:59 pm
Pemba wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:07 pm
Well that's the point that was made before isn't it ? floods, cyclones, droughts, extreme temperatures etc ? Fits perfectly into the believers narrative.......
Only when you selectively eliminate the "innocuously average" from the "anomalies".
My point was that this (map) is just more of the same. No point is being made. Floods in UK, fires in Australia, temperature extremes in US. These are all weather events, they don't necessarily say anything about climate change or absence thereof. Personally I am not supporting any view "religiously". I am a "believer" in that I'm just going along with what the majority of scientists believes. If they can't come up with proof either way, I can save myself the trouble of trying. Although thinking and arguing about is always positive off course. But given the potential consequences of made man global warming, no scientific proof or consensus is needed for me to feel that we should try and do something about it.


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