False. Then why did the prediction of Florida being underwater not come true? Why do we still have snow?
Even the current climate models are run with full knowledge that there are at least more unknowns than knowns. And then there is the absolute fact that changing the known variables to anywhere within the range of uncertainty can produce warming or cooling predictions. A model that tells you two opposite answers is useless for predictions.
If you actually think the climate is simple enough to be understood with our current knowledge, then you have no understanding of the climate's complexity.
We can not accurately forecast weather more than 10 days out even with a very hi-res GCM because weather is chaotic. The analogy is a butterfly in Spain causing a hurricane in Florida.
Thank you for admitting this!
And the problems with the averages is that we dont know about the butterflies in the past, because we only have an extremely low resolution record of past conditions. And actually, we dont even track those butterflies in the present, and can only speculate on the ones we are not taking into account. - more unknowns than knowns.
Local Beach: Brancaster Norfolk 46 miles- just need a hard beach
Favorite Beaches: mablephorpe , cleephorpes uk-just need a hard beach
Style: landboarding with a petzl work harness
Gear: old blades and old flysurfer's , ckb/dex carbon landboards, modified airdeck and a home made snow board with barrel wheels ,soul's , spd5's. over 30ish old blades all set up to go ,i like a bit of old skool
Local Beach: Brancaster Norfolk 46 miles- just need a hard beach
Favorite Beaches: mablephorpe , cleephorpes uk-just need a hard beach
Style: landboarding with a petzl work harness
Gear: old blades and old flysurfer's , ckb/dex carbon landboards, modified airdeck and a home made snow board with barrel wheels ,soul's , spd5's. over 30ish old blades all set up to go ,i like a bit of old skool
Almost 200 pages now.. This topic can be summarized by one side saying "people are causing climate change" and the other side saying "there is no proof of that". Repeat, repeat. Question would be are the indications strong enough for us to "do something" or not.
Almost 200 pages now.. This topic can be summarized by one side saying "people are causing climate change" and the other side saying "there is no proof of that". Repeat, repeat. Question would be are the indications strong enough for us to "do something" or not.
Apart from slide asking for/posting weather forecasts I guess this thread has died anyway?
I think the question is good (we have talked about that before). But until someone who is arguing for strict measures against Co2-emissions can show that they have at least considered the cost of doing so - I find it hard to take them seriously. Then it is just another religion for me.
That is not me saying we shouldn't. I believe Daniel Schmachtenberger is absolutely correct - we need a "closed loop" system for everything we do on earth. I would even agree to Bret Weinstein who argues that you should never do anything that you cannot undo. Take a sip of water today and you will most likely drink a small portion of prozac. Should we have start using prozac when we cannot undo the effects of it? Fish - which is supposedly in many cases one of the best things you can eat is now for certain types of fish only recommended to eat in limit volume - because of the "toxic waste" you get with it - especially in fat rich fish. Obviously it shouldn't have to be like this, but what would be the cost of fixing it?
Except its not actually a question anymore. It is almost certain that 50% of the observed warming is anthropogenic in cause. It is highly likely that more than 100% of the observed warming is anthropogenic. Temperatures will rise 1 - 3°C by the end of the century depending upon future greenhouse gas emissions. The cost of doing nothing has been shown in numerous studies to exceed the cost/opportunity of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That is why every country in the world signed the Paris Agreement, which requires every country to meet individual target goals.
