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climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

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Matteo V
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:27 pm

SimonP wrote:
Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:02 pm
Matteo V wrote:
Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:37 pm
False. Then why did the prediction of Florida being underwater not come true? Why do we still have snow?

Even the current climate models are run with full knowledge that there are at least more unknowns than knowns. And then there is the absolute fact that changing the known variables to anywhere within the range of uncertainty can produce warming or cooling predictions. A model that tells you two opposite answers is useless for predictions.

If you actually think the climate is simple enough to be understood with our current knowledge, then you have no understanding of the climate's complexity.
We can not accurately forecast weather more than 10 days out even with a very hi-res GCM because weather is chaotic. The analogy is a butterfly in Spain causing a hurricane in Florida.
Thank you for admitting this!

And the problems with the averages is that we dont know about the butterflies in the past, because we only have an extremely low resolution record of past conditions. And actually, we dont even track those butterflies in the present, and can only speculate on the ones we are not taking into account. - more unknowns than knowns.

Matteo V
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:52 am

Still learning about the oceans.



So, no, we dont have a good handle on what is driving the key components of our climate.

slide
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby slide » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:06 am

texas has a warning of what climate change means and one hospitial 3 days without power

Matteo V
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:48 pm

slide wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:06 am
texas has a warning of what climate change means and one hospitial 3 days without power
Yeah, last week was terribly hot in Texas.........

Matteo V
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Matteo V » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:50 pm

More variables coming in

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/18/96906356 ... lipped-out

Looks like this one could make a 1⁰ temp rise look even more like the insignificance it is.

slide
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby slide » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:37 am

any members from australia on here -i hope you are ok , i'd like to hear your views

Pemba
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Pemba » Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:40 pm

Almost 200 pages now.. This topic can be summarized by one side saying "people are causing climate change" and the other side saying "there is no proof of that". Repeat, repeat. Question would be are the indications strong enough for us to "do something" or not.

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Havre
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Havre » Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:56 pm

Pemba wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:40 pm
Almost 200 pages now.. This topic can be summarized by one side saying "people are causing climate change" and the other side saying "there is no proof of that". Repeat, repeat. Question would be are the indications strong enough for us to "do something" or not.
Apart from slide asking for/posting weather forecasts I guess this thread has died anyway?

I think the question is good (we have talked about that before). But until someone who is arguing for strict measures against Co2-emissions can show that they have at least considered the cost of doing so - I find it hard to take them seriously. Then it is just another religion for me.

That is not me saying we shouldn't. I believe Daniel Schmachtenberger is absolutely correct - we need a "closed loop" system for everything we do on earth. I would even agree to Bret Weinstein who argues that you should never do anything that you cannot undo. Take a sip of water today and you will most likely drink a small portion of prozac. Should we have start using prozac when we cannot undo the effects of it? Fish - which is supposedly in many cases one of the best things you can eat is now for certain types of fish only recommended to eat in limit volume - because of the "toxic waste" you get with it - especially in fat rich fish. Obviously it shouldn't have to be like this, but what would be the cost of fixing it?

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SimonP
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby SimonP » Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:35 pm

Except its not actually a question anymore. It is almost certain that 50% of the observed warming is anthropogenic in cause. It is highly likely that more than 100% of the observed warming is anthropogenic. Temperatures will rise 1 - 3°C by the end of the century depending upon future greenhouse gas emissions. The cost of doing nothing has been shown in numerous studies to exceed the cost/opportunity of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That is why every country in the world signed the Paris Agreement, which requires every country to meet individual target goals.

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Havre
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Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Havre » Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:41 pm

Yes. Because when countries sign these agreements that means they will always follow up on them.

Not that I mind people being that convinced. We are all free to adjust our lives according to our beliefs. Not that I see that happening much though.


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