Covid vaccine

[Matteo V]

If you need 70+% of the world population either vaccinated or exposed/recovered and there are almost 8 billion people in the world and they are vaccinating 20 million per month how long will it take until we don’t have to wear masks and close most businesses?

You are not getting it. If the virus can mutate into multiple strains in 10-12 months time, and it takes 12 months to develop a treatment (mRNA "vaccines", actually pre-treatments) then the lock down is perpetual.

If somehow the virus has mercy on us, and its mutated strains are prevened by the current mRNA pre-treatment, then there is hope.

But mutation success is a product of natural selection dependent on enviormental factors. These first recognized mutations were successful in an environment without mRNA pre-treatments. But over the next year, mutations will begin to be driven by the exposure to those pre-treatments. Thus there is a likelihood that successful mutations in that enviorment will not be prevented by current mRNA pre-treatments.


There are way better odds that governments roll back the lock downs, return hospital capacity to what it was 60 years ago or so, and admits that the actual chance of dying "FROM" covid-19 and not just "WITH" it, are extremely low.

[knotwindy]

Never mind. You folks are very very serious about everything, even things there is no good data for yet. It was a joke with numbers pulled out of thin air. Although, admittedly, it is difficult to make a math joke.

[Hugh2]

Matteo, you are wrong. God knows why I bother to reply to your constantly misleading statements.

You don't understand how these vaccines work (not "pre-treatments", it is not a treatment, it is a way to prime the immune system - you are just being deliberately difficult here). They are expressing the entire spike protein, so the only mutations that are successful are those that allow the spike protein to maintain and sometimes somewhat improve the function of this protein, which is primarily to bind to the ACE2 receptor protein on our cells. Thus this protein has to maintain its basic shape. When it is produced by cells in your body after vaccination, the many B lymphocytes that by chance happen to produce an antibody that recognizes a part (called epitopes) of its 1273 amino acids become activated and expand into clones (hence the term polyclonal antibody response). So any mutation that slightly changes the spike protein that improves its binding to the ACE2 receptor will only change the shape in a minor way and most of the antibodies produced against other parts of the spike protein will continue to function, hence the UK variant will not be able to evade the vaccine. You are arguing that the virus will eventually mutate in ways that change the spike protein to avoid the immunization response, but that is not possible as it would require the spike protein to change its shape in major ways so that all epitopes recognized by the many antibodies we produce will have changed, but that's not possible because then the spike protein will no longer retain its function of binding to the ACE2 receptor.

[Matteo V]

Never mind. You folks are very very serious about everything, even things there is no good data for yet. It was a joke with numbers pulled out of thin air. Although, admittedly, it is difficult to make a math joke.

I liked it! Just lots of ESL forum users here so clarification required.

[Matteo V]

Matteo, you are wrong. God knows why I bother to reply to your constantly misleading statements.

You don't understand how these vaccines work (not "pre-treatments", it is not a treatment, it is a way to prime the immune system - you are just being deliberately difficult here). They are expressing the entire spike protein, so the only mutations that are successful are those that allow the spike protein to maintain and sometimes somewhat improve the function of this protein, which is primarily to bind to the ACE2 receptor protein on our cells. Thus this protein has to maintain its basic shape. When it is produced by cells in your body after vaccination, the many B lymphocytes that by chance happen to produce an antibody that recognizes a part (called epitopes) of its 1273 amino acids become activated and expand into clones (hence the term polyclonal antibody response). So any mutation that slightly changes the spike protein that improves its binding to the ACE2 receptor will only change the shape in a minor way and most of the antibodies produced against other parts of the spike protein will continue to function, hence the UK variant will not be able to evade the vaccine. You are arguing that the virus will eventually mutate in ways that change the spike protein to avoid the immunization response, but that is not possible as it would require the spike protein to change its shape in major ways so that all epitopes recognized by the many antibodies we produce will have changed, but that's not possible because then the spike protein will no longer retain its function of binding to the ACE2 receptor.

First, with regards to the parts in bold, are you really, really, really, really sure??? I mean, any chance at all that maybe there is some yet to be realized process that does exactly the things you say can't happen or only sometimes happen? Maybe even a tiny chance down around the mortality rate of the first strain - .05%?

I agree based on our limited knowledge of this virus, the mRNA pre-treatment, and biology itself, we can make this assumption for simplicity's sake. But what is the risk in this? And how much is that risk magnified by ignoring it.

It seems that you are going "full infomercial" on us, just like that video.


Now for the bold underlined part about the UK variant, I would agree with you. But my post was regarding future variants evolving in the new enviorment in which the pre-treatments are widely distributed. That is a game changer.

[Kitedicted]

It's somewhat funny how people dedicated to kitesurfing are afraid of very unlikely hypothetical vaccine side effects

[knotwindy]

It's somewhat funny how people dedicated to kitesurfing are afraid of very UNKNOWN hypothetical vaccine side effects

There, I fixed it for you.

[Havre]

It's somewhat funny how people dedicated to kitesurfing are afraid of very unlikely hypothetical vaccine side effects

Wouldn't that apply for the virus as well?

[Kitedicted]

It's somewhat funny how people dedicated to kitesurfing are afraid of very unlikely hypothetical vaccine side effects

Wouldn't that apply for the virus as well?

To some extent yes, however the virus complications are at least verified but unpredictable.

But on a serious note, what sort of outcomes are you guys afraid of specifically? And what base do you have for those assumptions? And what would be the criteria for you to deem the vaccine safe?

Honestly curious

[Havre]

It's somewhat funny how people dedicated to kitesurfing are afraid of very unlikely hypothetical vaccine side effects

Wouldn't that apply for the virus as well?

To some extent yes, however the virus complications are at least verified but unpredictable.

But on a serious note, what sort of outcomes are you guys afraid of specifically? And what base do you have for those assumptions? And what would be the criteria for you to deem the vaccine safe?

Honestly curious

I´m not afraid of the vaccines so I can't answer that.

Interesting how we seem to have found the perfect level of risk a human being should accept. The virus is too dangerous for the risk to be acceptable, but any potential side effect from the vaccines are not. So somewhere right in between the two is the perfect level of risk. Who knew (not laughing at you, but the situation)