That example of rolling a dice was just to illustrate base concepts of probabilities.
Law of Large Numbers will indeed state that in the upcoming 4000 sessions, it is quite likely that the shit is gonna hit the fan somehow. But at the same time, the odds of the shit hitting the fan on your next session are not affected in any way by what happened or didn't happen in your previous thousands of sessions.
If the event has a very tiny probability, it could well be that it's only likely to happen after, say a million sessions. In which case, your Large Number of 4000 isn't Large enough to be meaningful... Rule of the game is to understand that probability of a severe event, and reduce it to a level where it is very unlikely to happen despite a real-life large number of sessions.
That severe event could be a combination of events. The wind suddenly increased AND you were close to rocks AND your QR malfunctioned AND you were upside down AND...
No one really has the answer to that.