Postby edt » Sat Nov 12, 2016 4:18 pm
Trump isn't Hitler. Even though I detest him I have to admit he doesn't seem to love war. He has come out pretty strongly saying that George W Bush's invasion of Iraq was a mistake (even if he was for it initially). And in general people say what they believe. He is not a war lover. You look at Hitler he practically shouted that he would create a second world war in "Mein Knopf" that was never a secret. I doubt that Trump will involve us in a ground war, he has given no indications of it. Hillary has shown she is much more willing to commit to war. So there is that, I do appreciate that he probably won't throw the USA into another stupid war. However, he is erratic, impulsive and unpredictable and might light a nuke up some Bedouin's ass in the middle of the night create a glass parking lot somewhere outside Mosul. I can see him doing that and the next day going "Oh my bad."
TRUMP: Let me explain. Somebody hits us within ISIS — you wouldn`t fight back with a nuke? The fact is, we need unpredictability. And when you ask a question like that, it’s a very — it’s a very sad thing to have to answer it, because the enemy is watching and I have a very good chance of winning and I frankly don’t want the enemy to know how I’m thinking.
I admit it is nice that our enemies don't know what Donald Trump is thinking. The problem is we, the American people have no idea what he will do either. That's the downside of unpredictability. Nixon by the way used to have the "Madman Theory" and I am pretty sure Donald Trump picked up on that idea, he was around during that era and must have known about it.
Chief of Staff H. R. Haldeman in 1969
"I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace."
The problem with the "Madman Theory" of diplomacy is that in a democracy you need to build coalitions both inside the nation and outside of it. When the president is a madman it's impossible for him to gather support for his actions in advance. You can't really do this successfully because the president of the USA doesn't really have the kind of power that allows him to act like Kim Jong-un.
So when North Vietnam was presented with Nixon's "Madman Theory" of diplomacy they understood it was a foolish idea and struck back with the Tet Offensive. By any measure the Tet Offensive was the worst single military adventure since the Battle of the Somme. Everywhere across Vietnam soldiers were crushed at terrifying ratios. However, the war isn't just won or lost on the battlefield, North Vietnam knew that it was also being played at home on American's television screens, and when the scenes of the killing showed up, citizens said "I thought you said we were almost winning that it was almost over, why is this happening?" and there was a realization that North Vietnam would fight to the bitter end and really, why were we there? So while the Tet Offensive was a military disaster it was a public relations triumph and completely turned around the dialogue inside the United States. Nixon's "Madman Theory" was busted. A president can't act like an unpredictable mad dog and expect that the citizens will willy nilly follow him. A president has to explain why he is doing something before he does it, he has to explain what the results will be while the operation is happening and he has to explain how long it will take and when it is over he has to explain what the results were.
So I really am not fond of Trump taking up the mantle of the "I don't want the enemy to know I'm thinking" as that goes both ways. When the enemy doesn't know what you are thinking we don't know what you are thinking. Anyway, I think there's a decent chance he will light up a nuke sometime in the next 4 years, but I doubt it will cause a war.
In regards to the original question the day after he sets off a nuke like a fireworks display in the desert prices will jump overnight, travel restrictions, trade restrictions, probably a few economic embargoes, the usual stuff. You won't be able to predict it though. I wouldn't bother betting for or against this possibility. Make sure your passport is in order, good luck getting a rush order if it's not done now, that's about it. It would suck if you had a trip planned to turks & caicos but the wait for a passport renewal was 6 months so you ended up not being able to go. I probably wouldn't buy a kite now unless you already need it, no telling really when he fires off a nuke, could be the first day of his administration or could be 4 years later. If you hold a kite you don't need for 4 years that's like losing money. I would just sit tight keep your passport in order that's about it.
Last edited by
edt on Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:32 pm, edited 3 times in total.
