Contact   Imprint   Advertising   Guidelines

climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Forum for snow- and landkiters
User avatar
SimonP
Frequent Poster
Posts: 460
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:49 am
Local Beach: Rotorua Lakes, Maketu, NZ
Favorite Beaches: Aotea, Maroochydore, Faro, Aitutaki
Style: Foiling, free-style, waves
Gear: J-shapes foil, Switch kites, Underground twintips, misc surfboards.
Brand Affiliation: None
Location: Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 17 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby SimonP » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:06 pm

B-Roc wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:23 pm
I am by no means an expert on this but are you not discounting the impact that the sun has on the temperature / weather on this planet and the fact that greenhouse gases have no impact on its output? Solar flares, solar cooling, global drift, etc. all are well beyond our control and their effects would be far more immediate, I would think.
Maximal solar variation is around 0.1% of total output, enough to temporarily affect surface temperatures by 0.2 - 0.4°C.

User avatar
SimonP
Frequent Poster
Posts: 460
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:49 am
Local Beach: Rotorua Lakes, Maketu, NZ
Favorite Beaches: Aotea, Maroochydore, Faro, Aitutaki
Style: Foiling, free-style, waves
Gear: J-shapes foil, Switch kites, Underground twintips, misc surfboards.
Brand Affiliation: None
Location: Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 17 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby SimonP » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:15 pm

Matteo V wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:33 pm
Current climatological models can be made to show warming or cooling, depending on inputs within the allowable margin of error for those inputs. So no, current climatological models have not benefited from supercomputing or anything we thought we figured out in the 1800's. Sure the theory seems sound and is best we have, but our current understanding is absolutely still in its infancy.
False. Every climate model shows a warming trend with continuing greenhouse gas emissions.
Matteo V wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:58 pm
And are you pointing at one catastrophe as indication of anthropogenic climate change?
No, but the probability of an area in the PNW being burnt has increased significantly in recent decades.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.11 ... 019-0062-8
https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr8 ... 70_011.pdf

Hurricane intensity is increasing because of warmer ocean temperatures and warmer air being able to hold more water vapour.
https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes ... te-change/

The evidence is undeniable.

prop_joe
Frequent Poster
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:34 pm
Gear: twin tips
Brand Affiliation: None
Has thanked: 53 times
Been thanked: 62 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby prop_joe » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:50 pm

SimonP wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:29 pm
Ignoring the broad scientific consensus for a moment: aren't you personally concerned about wildfires on every continent, coral reefs bleaching and dying at massive scale, and record heath temperatures everywhere?
Although iv'e found you and matteo's back n forth very interesting the above question really bugs me, being skeptical or against extinction rebellion does not automatically mean you want the planet to burn. What's even more irritating is we know you(the reasonable ones such as yourself at least) don't believe this either but you do it anyway to make the person look bad or perahps make yourself feel better i'm not entirely sure? It's like saying if you don't support blm your a racist... it's 100% bullsh*t and yet annoyingly with the way our media is it seems to work as a tactic. Imagine we wanted to go the moon again, you said your gonna do it in a spaceship made from cheese, if i said thats retarded and refused to support it would that make me anti going to the moon or moonist :lol:?...obviously not, i just think theres a better way. You and matteo are clearly intelligent people just with differing view points, i think you can both continue with your back and fourth without the schnidy digs at one another... we'll see :D

User avatar
SimonP
Frequent Poster
Posts: 460
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:49 am
Local Beach: Rotorua Lakes, Maketu, NZ
Favorite Beaches: Aotea, Maroochydore, Faro, Aitutaki
Style: Foiling, free-style, waves
Gear: J-shapes foil, Switch kites, Underground twintips, misc surfboards.
Brand Affiliation: None
Location: Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 17 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby SimonP » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:57 pm

I didn't actually write the above statement, palmbeacher did but quoted me by mistake.
I do however agree with the statement. Our generation will not see the worst effects, it's our grand-children I am worried about. Temperatures will keep increasing until net greenhouse gases are reduced to zero. Even then, temperatures will continue to rise until an equilibrium is reached. Once you start talking about > 3°C then that starts making large parts of the world uninhabitable. Humans are highly adaptable, but other species are not. We have already seen many examples of ecological collapse, rapid temperature rise will exacerbate it further.
Those of us who work in the natural sciences are more than alarmed, the general public should be too.

prop_joe
Frequent Poster
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:34 pm
Gear: twin tips
Brand Affiliation: None
Has thanked: 53 times
Been thanked: 62 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby prop_joe » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:29 pm

SimonP wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:57 pm
I didn't actually write the above statement, palmbeacher did but quoted me by mistake.
Fair enough, my apologies.

palmbeacher
Frequent Poster
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:53 pm
Kiting since: 2011
Gear: Lift foils + Cabrinha kites
Has thanked: 38 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby palmbeacher » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:03 am

SimonP wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:57 pm
I didn't actually write the above statement, palmbeacher did but quoted me by mistake.
I do however agree with the statement. Our generation will not see the worst effects, it's our grand-children I am worried about. Temperatures will keep increasing until net greenhouse gases are reduced to zero. Even then, temperatures will continue to rise until an equilibrium is reached. Once you start talking about > 3°C then that starts making large parts of the world uninhabitable. Humans are highly adaptable, but other species are not. We have already seen many examples of ecological collapse, rapid temperature rise will exacerbate it further.
Those of us who work in the natural sciences are more than alarmed, the general public should be too.
Sorry about that - my mistake indeed. Glad we agree!

Pemba
Frequent Poster
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:39 am
Kiting since: 2002
Local Beach: Murrebue
Gear: Eleveight FS, Shinn Bronq
Brand Affiliation: None
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 24 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby Pemba » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:13 pm

prop_joe wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:50 pm
SimonP wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:29 pm
Ignoring the broad scientific consensus for a moment: aren't you personally concerned about wildfires on every continent, coral reefs bleaching and dying at massive scale, and record heath temperatures everywhere?
Although iv'e found you and matteo's back n forth very interesting the above question really bugs me, being skeptical or against extinction rebellion does not automatically mean you want the planet to burn. What's even more irritating is we know you(the reasonable ones such as yourself at least) don't believe this either but you do it anyway to make the person look bad or perahps make yourself feel better i'm not entirely sure? It's like saying if you don't support blm your a racist... it's 100% bullsh*t and yet annoyingly with the way our media is it seems to work as a tactic. Imagine we wanted to go the moon again, you said your gonna do it in a spaceship made from cheese, if i said thats retarded and refused to support it would that make me anti going to the moon or moonist :lol:?...obviously not, i just think theres a better way. You and matteo are clearly intelligent people just with differing view points, i think you can both continue with your back and fourth without the schnidy digs at one another... we'll see :D

I agree with you. Leaving Matteo and SimonP aside for now, I'm amazed how emotional (angry) so many people become and how unwilling to follow somebody else's argument. I guess it's because it clearly is a very political issue. That's ridiculous but also true.

palmbeacher
Frequent Poster
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:53 pm
Kiting since: 2011
Gear: Lift foils + Cabrinha kites
Has thanked: 38 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby palmbeacher » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:17 pm

Pemba wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:13 pm
prop_joe wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:50 pm
SimonP wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:29 pm
Ignoring the broad scientific consensus for a moment: aren't you personally concerned about wildfires on every continent, coral reefs bleaching and dying at massive scale, and record heath temperatures everywhere?
Although iv'e found you and matteo's back n forth very interesting the above question really bugs me, being skeptical or against extinction rebellion does not automatically mean you want the planet to burn. What's even more irritating is we know you(the reasonable ones such as yourself at least) don't believe this either but you do it anyway to make the person look bad or perahps make yourself feel better i'm not entirely sure? It's like saying if you don't support blm your a racist... it's 100% bullsh*t and yet annoyingly with the way our media is it seems to work as a tactic. Imagine we wanted to go the moon again, you said your gonna do it in a spaceship made from cheese, if i said thats retarded and refused to support it would that make me anti going to the moon or moonist :lol:?...obviously not, i just think theres a better way. You and matteo are clearly intelligent people just with differing view points, i think you can both continue with your back and fourth without the schnidy digs at one another... we'll see :D

I agree with you. Leaving Matteo and SimonP aside for now, I'm amazed how emotional (angry) so many people become and how unwilling to follow somebody else's argument. I guess it's because it clearly is a very political issue. That's ridiculous but also true.
The whole point being is that it shouldn’t be a political issue: it is science!

User avatar
SimonP
Frequent Poster
Posts: 460
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:49 am
Local Beach: Rotorua Lakes, Maketu, NZ
Favorite Beaches: Aotea, Maroochydore, Faro, Aitutaki
Style: Foiling, free-style, waves
Gear: J-shapes foil, Switch kites, Underground twintips, misc surfboards.
Brand Affiliation: None
Location: Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 17 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby SimonP » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:18 pm

Exactly. The science is what it is. The political argument should be over how we mitigate and/or adapt. Unfortunately, many politicians try to deny reality and ignore the experts rather than formulating evidence-based policy. This is why the US has 25% of all COVID-19 cases despite only having 4% of the world's population. It is also why the US has very little central planning to mitigate against increasingly extreme hurricane or fire events.

prop_joe
Frequent Poster
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:34 pm
Gear: twin tips
Brand Affiliation: None
Has thanked: 53 times
Been thanked: 62 times

Re: climate change / unpredictable weather/wind

Postby prop_joe » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:11 pm

SimonP wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:18 pm
Exactly. The science is what it is. The political argument should be over how we mitigate and/or adapt.
i think i agree with this statement


Return to “Snow / Land”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests