Trent hink wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:29 pm
Sorry for quoting myself here, but the current death-toll in Italy is 8,215 (as of about 45 minutes ago).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/
Italy is now on lockdown with tremendous resources being expended to fight the epidemic. Other countries, including the one i live in, are or will be following this same approach, with huge consequences regarding their economies and quality of life.
These extreme measures will undoubtedly save lives, but at what cost? Why was there no lockdown during the 2016-2017 flu season? What is really going on here that makes this thing any different?
I don't have any answers, this is just something I have been thinking about lately. I do tend to agree with Plummet, there are things that are worse than death.
Italy lost 8500 in a month, 100,000 per year at that rate.
Well at over 700 deaths per day now, 5000 per week, 260,000 per year at that rate, it could be drastic.
With an estimated 1% mortality rate, even though it is running 10% now, but I expect that will go down.
With 60 million people an estimate of 2/3 to be infected before herd immunity, that is 40 million with a rate of 1% that is 400,000 dead. That assumes the health system doesn’t collapse and the death rate goes up because Italy runS out of nurses, doctors, beds, medicine, ambulances, etc.
Italy as nation is very old. The virus is very hard on the old.
That is what is going on that makes this different than the normal flu season.
I agree there are things worse than death. I don’t know what is the right answer,
I assume that this will self regulate in that as the deaths increase, people and businesses on their own will isolate and close.
There seems to some evidence of that in the USA.
There also seems in general a certain threshold that needs to be crossed before a government acts. I think is just a reality of the situation,
Also population is predicted to peak at 11 billion somewhere around the start of the next century. Fertility declines as wealth increases.
https://www.gapminder.org/answers/how-d ... on-change/
I suppose it is conceivable that at some time in the future the world population could be in decline.