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wind statistics that account for thermal wind

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Grizwald
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wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby Grizwald » Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:34 pm

Every source of wind statistics I have been able to find gives average daily wind, which of course means that a spot where the thermals kick up every afternoon but the nights are relatively calm comes off looking dead. Does anyone have any suggestions where one can find data that takes this into account.
thx
Griz

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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby Toby » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:23 am

Same problem in NE Brazil.

But, after a while you pretty much know what to expect looking at the forecast...it will always be some more...

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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby rw30 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:22 am

Grizwald wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:34 pm
Every source of wind statistics I have been able to find gives average daily wind, which of course means that a spot where the thermals kick up every afternoon but the nights are relatively calm comes off looking dead. Does anyone have any suggestions where one can find data that takes this into account.
thx
Griz
minute-by-minute live stations - many spots at windguru have them & they store quite some history.
No base forecast model gonna consider it, some modifications (e.g. windFinder's superForecast) could though.

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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby rw30 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:00 am

Toby wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:23 am


But, after a while
the problem for people going somewhere for a week or two is that, not knowing the thermic's trends and finding it hard to believe to locals - no surprise, especially the business owners always claim it's more windy than it actually is - you may just reject some locations coz you underestimate thermal wind.

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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby Havre » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:12 am

Might be slightly off topic, but how is wind measured in general?

Some spots got fairly ridiculous local effects. Not sure how you would be able to calibrate for that.

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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby Toby » Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:29 am

rw30 wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:00 am
Toby wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:23 am


But, after a while
the problem for people going somewhere for a week or two is that, not knowing the thermic's trends and finding it hard to believe to locals - no surprise, especially the business owners always claim it's more windy than it actually is - you may just reject some locations coz you underestimate thermal wind.
True.

But to find out reality, you have kiteforum.com !

Just ask on here where and when you want to go, and I am sure someone will know.
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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby lederhosen » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:32 pm

Havre wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:12 am
Might be slightly off topic, but how is wind measured in general?

Some spots got fairly ridiculous local effects. Not sure how you would be able to calibrate for that.
There are thermic winds in the alps that can be estimated by diffentent forecast spots around the area. It is possible to gert alerts on windy.com for a certain direction on one spot, but it would be cool to be able to add more conditions to an alert and then put it in a list for local phenomena to share with others.

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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby Peter_Frank » Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:17 pm

rw30 wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:22 am
Grizwald wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:34 pm
Every source of wind statistics I have been able to find gives average daily wind, which of course means that a spot where the thermals kick up every afternoon but the nights are relatively calm comes off looking dead. Does anyone have any suggestions where one can find data that takes this into account.
thx
Griz

minute-by-minute live stations - many spots at windguru have them & they store quite some history.
No base forecast model gonna consider it, some modifications (e.g. windFinder's superForecast) could though.

True, thermal winds can often be forecasted, other times not at all.

Seabreezes can either kick in, meaning 15 knots onshore wind or more, or not at all, meaning 3 knots of wind or slight offshore wind.
Impossible to predict - only if there is a chance or not (warm land colder water etc) is sometimes forecasted, but it is a lottery whether it will go on or not :naughty:

At other spots the thermal winds are extremely predictable, in the Mediterranean as one example, you can almost set your clock after when it kicks in, and stops.

So only the 10 minute or hourly average wind stations, where you can access these historic data, are usable.

OR, ask here as Toby says - and there will be many who can answer for a particular spot and time of year :thumb:

8) Peter

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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby jakemoore » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:07 pm

Our wind stats here are really positive. I’m pretty sure the iKite statistics are posting the max hourly wind speed during the daytime. So if you get 50% 20 knots that means there is a 50 percent chance you will see 20 knots sometime in the day.

But even on the days that are forecast to be dead there is almost always a thermal enough to hydrofoil. And on strong frontal winds the front almost always dies earlier than forecast. Even Windguru and iKite do not predict these patterns that are locally known.

I guess kite forum is the best bet.
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Re: wind statistics that account for thermal wind

Postby knot_moving » Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:01 am

Peter_Frank wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:17 pm


True, thermal winds can often be forecasted, other times not at all.

Seabreezes can either kick in, meaning 15 knots onshore wind or more, or not at all, meaning 3 knots of wind or slight offshore wind.
Impossible to predict - only if there is a chance or not (warm land colder water etc) is sometimes forecasted, but it is a lottery whether it will go on or not :naughty:

At other spots the thermal winds are extremely predictable, in the Mediterranean as one example, you can almost set your clock after when it kicks in, and stops.

So only the 10 minute or hourly average wind stations, where you can access these historic data, are usable.

OR, ask here as Toby says - and there will be many who can answer for a particular spot and time of year :thumb:

8) Peter
The book "High Performance Sailing" by Bethwaite has the best discussion I've seen on predicting sea breezes. After reading it, I can absolutely predict that if there is an offshore gradient wind from North to West and under 6kts, and sun, then there will be a >10kt seabreeze after noon.
If gradient wind is SW, or NE, > 6kts or partly cloudy, then its iffy whether a true seabreeze forms (very stable, almost no gusts,wind). Any other direction and we don't get seabreezes but we do randomly get thermally higher winds.


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