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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Flyboy » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:00 am

Havre wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:52 pm

Recently there is a sharp decline in CFR, but that can hardly be because of more vaccination. The increase seen earlier this fall happened at a time when the population was already heavily vaccinated. Late October compared to the year before the CFR is higher. Seems odd.
The statistics - assuming they are relatively accurate - may be driven by a fairly complex mix of factors. Vaccinations reduced the infection rate & the death rate, but when Covid restrictions are removed the infection rates inevitably go up. This can be observed pretty much everywhere in Europe. If the cases go up a lot, where vaccination levels are low - like in Ukraine, Romania, Russia & other countries - the death rate climbs also. In countries were vaccination rates are higher - like Spain. Portugal, Italy - infection rates have only increased modestly, & death rates hardly at all. The CFR is probably also responding to changes in the kind of people who are getting infected - how many of them are younger people.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby justbob » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:23 pm

matth wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:25 pm
Hugh2 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:09 pm
Screen Shot 2021-11-26 at 5.35.41 PM.pngOkay, I don't want to rework the arguments we had here more than a year ago, but some comments above are not helpful.

First, calling those who questioned Trump's actions "retards" is hardly helpful. If anything what we have seen is that travel bans, unless you are a truly insular nation like New Zealand, or able to control your population like Hong Kong and China, you cannot avoid these new highly transmissable variants (and even they have struggled with it). They will spread worldwide no matter how hard you try to block them, and indeed these new travel restrictions are like closing the door after the horse has bolted, and I disagree with them just as I did the earlier restrictions. I note that even the governments imposing these restrictions acknowledge that they at best will slow the spread, not stop it, just like last year.

Second, nobody claimed the vaccines are perfect, it was always clear that they would wane in effectiveness with time, as do most vaccines hence the need to get boosters every few years for many vaccines, and that variants would almost certainly evolve that at least partially evade them. Making statements like that just feed the anti-vax sentiments that have helped keep this pandemic going and cost countless people their lives, unnecessarily. The US still has around 1000 deaths every day from covid and almost all could have been avoided if these folk were vaccinated. And yes, if necessary we might need to develop variant-specific vaccinations if a truly evasive variant evolves, as seems quite likely, and I and billions others will be glad to get it, just as I have had three doses of the original vaccine so far.

Third, nobody is talking about lockdowns for 6-12 months, we have mostly moved on from that approach which was essential to blunt the early waves before vaccines were available. The vaccines will almost certainly still confer considerable protection against this variant, so we remain in the situation that the tables have been turned and now it is the unvaccinated who have to protect themselves as societies reopen and remain open.

I remain optimistic that this virus will slowly mutate into a form that we can live with as an endemic virus like several coronaviruses that cause common colds, and initial reports from South Africa indicate that while highly contagious it so far is causing only mild cases. Early days yet and let's see what happens in two weeks time, some percentage of patients might yet end up in hospital with Omicron. The spread of Omicron is impressive however, and almost certainly unstoppable, just look at this graph of proportions of sequenced samples, it has almost eliminated Delta in South Africa in ten days, that's amazing.

Finally, the report that 61 passengers amoungst the roughly 600 on two flights from SA who were held in quarantine in the Netherlands tested positive is perplexing. How did they get on the flights if they were infected, is not everyone required to test before flying? Can they really all have been infected in the few days before traveling? If so we are dealing with an amazingly contagious variant. And how were they tested? If by the standard PCR tests then the dropout of the S-gene amplicon that characterizes this variant (like the earlier Beta variant in SA), should already tell if they have Omicron without needing to do whole genome sequencing. Yikes, just saw a video on CNN of these passengers, crowded on these planes for many hours. By now they may all be infected.

Oh well, this has already trashed our family holiday to SA, scheduled to fly on Friday for five weeks, at considerable cost to me. I am still determined to go alone this week, before any chance Delta airlines will renege on their pledge to keep flying to Joburg. I'm confident these travel restrictions will be lifted sooner than the earlier ones were, and I am able to stay almost indefinitely as I am South African and have a flat there.
What no one is talking about are the lying Chinese who started this virus, lied about the origin, surpressed information, silinced whistle blowers, obstructed investigations, and more.
The World should be far more forceful and demand answers ,reparations, and 100% access and transparency if they are going to continue to do this highly dangerous reseach..
Sadly we have a world of feckless leadership and corrupt politicians who are in bed with China...Millions dead and counting and almost zero interest in the root cause...
Agreed with your statement 100%. I am incredulous that no media outlet or government agency has done any meaningful investigation of the Chinese government and the source of this pandemic. Does no one else want answers from the dishonest, deceptive CCP?! Where have all the investigative “journalists” gone? Is accountability and responsibility dead?
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby knotwindy » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:54 pm

No, not dead, just bought and paid for. Just like the politicians. You want access, you write what the central bank owners like. USA, Europe, China, etc. doesn’t matter. Sorry, same 1% owners. Yea, it sounds like a conspiracy theory, unfortunately it’s still true. Look around with open eyes and stop sleepwalking through life.
If you control the information and access, you control the world. All it takes is money. And, of course, being a very rich psychopath to be member of the ‘privilege protected few’.

So just kite and enjoy whatever is left. :allbegood:
Last edited by knotwindy on Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby matth » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:55 pm

SmartSelect_20211129-105129_Facebook.jpg
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:32 pm

Kamikuza wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:45 am
Havre wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:27 pm
Well. That is true for those not vaccinated as well.

I'm not saying the vaccines do not work. They seem to give some temporary protection, but I highly doubt anyone really believe they stay at 90% for very long.

For vaccines people should do what they consider best. AstraZeneca is considered safe in many countries. In Norway AZ killed more young healthy people than Covid-19 and is not used any longer. Can't even start to think how the families of those dead feel. Several thousand women have issues with their periods etc. That is not information given to the population to take an informed decision though. AZ is completely safe in the UK while not in Norway etc. If people then consider the benefit is higher than the cost. Then fine. I have no issue with that. Strangely many got huge issues with the opposite though.
Where is the data on those two claims?

I'm being the waning immunity claims are based on incorrect assumptions, and the AZ is the result of bad press and overly cautious political decisions...
Call it whatever you want regarding AZ. In Norway we had one case of a guy in his 40s dying of Covid-19 - which because he was healthy became front page news. I do not believe anyone younger than him has died from Covid-19 in Norway without co-morbidities. I cannot know that, but since it became front page news that someone in their 40s died I would suspect that the SEVEN people below 40 dying where not without co-morbidities.

For the AZ vaccine it is well documented that it killed several healthy individuals in Norway - and some at the age below 40.

https://www.msn.com/nb-no/nyheter/norge ... r-BB1evVco

I'm sure there are sources in English as well if you look it up.

https://www.ntd.com/more-die-after-vacc ... 88004.html

In Taiwan more people have died after being vaccinated than from Covid-19. Obviously not saying that the vaccine is more harmful than Covid-19, but it is clearly a problem when you vaccinate people who otherwise would not have gotten very ill from the virus itself. To vaccinate a healthy 23 year old is quite frankly utter madness.

There are almost endless studies showing that the vaccines efficacy drop significantly. Which is why we "need" boosters.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... 9-vaccines

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:40 pm

Flyboy wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:00 am
Havre wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:52 pm

Recently there is a sharp decline in CFR, but that can hardly be because of more vaccination. The increase seen earlier this fall happened at a time when the population was already heavily vaccinated. Late October compared to the year before the CFR is higher. Seems odd.
The statistics - assuming they are relatively accurate - may be driven by a fairly complex mix of factors. Vaccinations reduced the infection rate & the death rate, but when Covid restrictions are removed the infection rates inevitably go up. This can be observed pretty much everywhere in Europe. If the cases go up a lot, where vaccination levels are low - like in Ukraine, Romania, Russia & other countries - the death rate climbs also. In countries were vaccination rates are higher - like Spain. Portugal, Italy - infection rates have only increased modestly, & death rates hardly at all. The CFR is probably also responding to changes in the kind of people who are getting infected - how many of them are younger people.
In the EU, US etc. there is clearly a very high % of the people above 60, which are mainly the people dying from/with Covid-19, who are vaccinated. Vs. 12 months ago the difference is massive as no-one, except maybe someone participating in trials, were vaccinated last year.

The numbers are not "clean" as the CFR probably does not fluctuate as much as those graphs suggests, but if the vaccines worked at somewhere around 90% - wouldn't you think the CFR would significantly drop?

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:44 pm

matth wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:55 pm
Image
The really sad part is that they always wait to lock down - until things are on their way down naturally.

In Norway's largest Northern city they have been insane about Covid-19 from the early days. They wanted to refuse people from the South travelling to the North 1.5 years ago etc.

About one month ago they had their first serious outbreak. Local politicians were screaming to introduce restrictions - one being a Coronapassport (which is not used in Norway). The passport would save them. Unfortunately, there have been technical issues with introducing the passport so it couldn't be done. Cases has now dropped like a stone and the number of people in hospital are almost cut in half. Imagine if they had actually been able to introduce the passport 2-3 weeks ago - people would have said it was due to the passport.

It's such a joke and I honestly do not understand why people can't see it.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Matteo V » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:30 pm

matth wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:55 pm
SmartSelect_20211129-105129_Facebook.jpg
Hey, man even ficchi keeps me alive to dispell the real......truth I'll ksay that SA "variant" is scary and should make you think twice about having a normal life for a virus with a .o3 death rate over all.

CV has gotta be a typo in the foot notes of tyrany.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Kamikuza » Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:19 am

Havre wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:32 pm
Call it whatever you want regarding AZ. In Norway we had one case of a guy in his 40s dying of Covid-19 - which because he was healthy became front page news. I do not believe anyone younger than him has died from Covid-19 in Norway without co-morbidities. I cannot know that, but since it became front page news that someone in their 40s died I would suspect that the SEVEN people below 40 dying where not without co-morbidities.

For the AZ vaccine it is well documented that it killed several healthy individuals in Norway - and some at the age below 40.

https://www.msn.com/nb-no/nyheter/norge ... r-BB1evVco

I'm sure there are sources in English as well if you look it up.

https://www.ntd.com/more-die-after-vacc ... 88004.html

In Taiwan more people have died after being vaccinated than from Covid-19. Obviously not saying that the vaccine is more harmful than Covid-19, but it is clearly a problem when you vaccinate people who otherwise would not have gotten very ill from the virus itself. To vaccinate a healthy 23 year old is quite frankly utter madness.

There are almost endless studies showing that the vaccines efficacy drop significantly. Which is why we "need" boosters.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... 9-vaccines
If you cannot know that, why would you suspect that?! ;)

"A causal relation between the serious cases of blood clots and the vaccine has not yet been established."
https://sciencenorway.no/covid19-ntb-en ... ne/1832883

Looks like the same thing with Taiwan -- correlation is not causation. I don't like it when authorities pull correlation stunts to inflate COVID deaths, so I'm not going to accept it from "the other side".

But lets just assume that it's not correlation...at what point does the risk from suboptimal outcomes of medical treatments outweigh the risk of catching the disease? Your odds are still better getting vaccinated (with caveats) because quite obviously, COVID is everywhere.

I can't remember the details about the efficacy thing, but I think it's a bit of a smoke screen. Declining antibody titers doesn't mean your immune system has forgotten its lesson the vaccine taught it about fighting off the virus. Efficacy is almost unchanged for people under 65, and it's still better at preventing serious illness and death than getting the virus unvaccinated.

Additionally, the other study into breakthrough cases in Israel concluded that none of the people even needed hospitalization, let alone died, and most of them were asymptomatic. So I've no problem with boosters, especially for the elderly.

But yeah, mandating young people, especially men, or even deputizing and empowering schools etc to mandate vaccinations, is quite a big pile of bullshit.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:49 am

That is old from March. There is close to 0 disagreement in Norway as to AZ having killed those people. Which is why we suddenly stopped using it and haven't used it since.

As for causality and correlation I agree. One can easily argue causality can never be proven. But that goes for the virus as much as the vaccine.

We for some strange reason see death in binary terms when it comes to Covid-19. When the average age of someone dying "from" Covid is 80 years+ with multiple co-morbidities I think it is much more useful to see Covid as the last push over the edge rather than as the main cause for basically any death. Funnily after 2 years we aren't seeing a huge push to reduce BMI and get people healthier. If I was to make a wild guess forcing people to get below a BMI to below 25 would be far more efficient to reduce deaths than any Covid-vaccine long term (not that I'm supporting any forcing of anything).

How can it be a smoke screen when country after country is introducing "booster"? Well. Interpol just hired a known torturer as their chief so maybe the world is just that corrupt? That is just me being conspiratorial though :lol:
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