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matth
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby matth » Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:46 pm

Havre wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:49 am
That is old from March. There is close to 0 disagreement in Norway as to AZ having killed those people. Which is why we suddenly stopped using it and haven't used it since.

As for causality and correlation I agree. One can easily argue causality can never be proven. But that goes for the virus as much as the vaccine.

We for some strange reason see death in binary terms when it comes to Covid-19. When the average age of someone dying "from" Covid is 80 years+ with multiple co-morbidities I think it is much more useful to see Covid as the last push over the edge rather than as the main cause for basically any death. Funnily after 2 years we aren't seeing a huge push to reduce BMI and get people healthier. If I was to make a wild guess forcing people to get below a BMI to below 25 would be far more efficient to reduce deaths than any Covid-vaccine long term (not that I'm supporting any forcing of anything).

How can it be a smoke screen when country after country is introducing "booster"? Well. Interpol just hired a known torturer as their chief so maybe the world is just that corrupt? That is just me being conspiratorial though :lol:
It's always about the money and power, people mean nothing, and yes the world is that corrupt.. :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Kamikuza » Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:47 pm

Havre wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:49 am
That is old from March. There is close to 0 disagreement in Norway as to AZ having killed those people. Which is why we suddenly stopped using it and haven't used it since.

As for causality and correlation I agree. One can easily argue causality can never be proven. But that goes for the virus as much as the vaccine.

We for some strange reason see death in binary terms when it comes to Covid-19. When the average age of someone dying "from" Covid is 80 years+ with multiple co-morbidities I think it is much more useful to see Covid as the last push over the edge rather than as the main cause for basically any death. Funnily after 2 years we aren't seeing a huge push to reduce BMI and get people healthier. If I was to make a wild guess forcing people to get below a BMI to below 25 would be far more efficient to reduce deaths than any Covid-vaccine long term (not that I'm supporting any forcing of anything).

How can it be a smoke screen when country after country is introducing "booster"? Well. Interpol just hired a known torturer as their chief so maybe the world is just that corrupt? That is just me being conspiratorial though :lol:
That's the latest in English so far as I can find, that's from reputable sources. I'm still skeptical, because if there was zero disagreement ... it would have made headlines in English too, at least in vaccine-skeptical sources.

Well, if the goal posts keep being shifted to ever greater degrees of accuracy, then sure. But in reality, causality *can* be proven.

Or any of the other comorbidities. 13 people a day die in NZ from smoking, which has been proven to cause cancer ... but guess what? You can still buy tobacco products. Somehow we're ok with people taking that risk upon themselves and "burdening the healthcare system" ... but we daren't let people go out kitesurfing because something something COVID. Somehow that's a bridge too far, but locking down the country and ruining everyone's life on behalf of a small number is just fine. Or the 500 people a year who died of flu ... don't start me.

That's correlation again. That a single study found waning vaccine effectiveness based on some metric, doesn't necessarily mean that's why the governments are "offering" boosters... but I'm pretty skeptical of their altruistic intentions too.
Flu shot is basically a booster, we get boosters for Tetanus etc. The more at risk you are of being a COVID fatality, the more you should consider a booster. Not an argument for mandating them though...!

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:11 pm

Kamikuza wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:47 pm
Havre wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:49 am
That is old from March. There is close to 0 disagreement in Norway as to AZ having killed those people. Which is why we suddenly stopped using it and haven't used it since.

As for causality and correlation I agree. One can easily argue causality can never be proven. But that goes for the virus as much as the vaccine.

We for some strange reason see death in binary terms when it comes to Covid-19. When the average age of someone dying "from" Covid is 80 years+ with multiple co-morbidities I think it is much more useful to see Covid as the last push over the edge rather than as the main cause for basically any death. Funnily after 2 years we aren't seeing a huge push to reduce BMI and get people healthier. If I was to make a wild guess forcing people to get below a BMI to below 25 would be far more efficient to reduce deaths than any Covid-vaccine long term (not that I'm supporting any forcing of anything).

How can it be a smoke screen when country after country is introducing "booster"? Well. Interpol just hired a known torturer as their chief so maybe the world is just that corrupt? That is just me being conspiratorial though :lol:
That's the latest in English so far as I can find, that's from reputable sources. I'm still skeptical, because if there was zero disagreement ... it would have made headlines in English too, at least in vaccine-skeptical sources.

Well, if the goal posts keep being shifted to ever greater degrees of accuracy, then sure. But in reality, causality *can* be proven.

Or any of the other comorbidities. 13 people a day die in NZ from smoking, which has been proven to cause cancer ... but guess what? You can still buy tobacco products. Somehow we're ok with people taking that risk upon themselves and "burdening the healthcare system" ... but we daren't let people go out kitesurfing because something something COVID. Somehow that's a bridge too far, but locking down the country and ruining everyone's life on behalf of a small number is just fine. Or the 500 people a year who died of flu ... don't start me.

That's correlation again. That a single study found waning vaccine effectiveness based on some metric, doesn't necessarily mean that's why the governments are "offering" boosters... but I'm pretty skeptical of their altruistic intentions too.
Flu shot is basically a booster, we get boosters for Tetanus etc. The more at risk you are of being a COVID fatality, the more you should consider a booster. Not an argument for mandating them though...!
Oh it has. Why aren't Norway and several other countries using AZ? And why have the EMA acknowledged that the vaccine in rare cases can lead to blood clots? This is mainstream. That countries like the UK are still considering this cost to be worth paying is a different story. I don't care if someone would like to take the AZ vaccine - as long as they are given full information about the risks and benefits. For young people the answer seems obvious - the risks are not worth it, but that is for each and everyone to decide in my opinion - and it seems like we agree on that point (which is probably the most important one).

As for causality that is a huge philosophical discussion. I'm not sure if Hume would agree with your position.

As for studies showing waning effect. I honestly do not know about a single study that shows that the effect doesn't decrease with time. Hopefully that is true though. Both for those vaccinated and I'm guessing those with 2 doses will then be allied to those unvaccinated protesting when "boosters" are getting required to travel, go to restaurants etc.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Hugh2 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:12 pm

Well, for better or worse, I am in Cape Town, for two months at least. Managed to get my car running after sitting in my garage for two years. Even the tires were still fine. Hopefully get to kite tomorrow and onwards.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby decay » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:01 pm

Hugh2 wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:12 pm
Well, for better or worse, I am in Cape Town, for two months at least. Managed to get my car running after sitting in my garage for two years. Even the tires were still fine. Hopefully get to kite tomorrow and onwards.
Welcome back Hugh, weather looking good for next few days, maybe see you on the water!

Cheers

DK

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Kamikuza » Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:54 am

Havre wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:11 pm
Oh it has. Why aren't Norway and several other countries using AZ? And why have the EMA acknowledged that the vaccine in rare cases can lead to blood clots? This is mainstream. That countries like the UK are still considering this cost to be worth paying is a different story. I don't care if someone would like to take the AZ vaccine - as long as they are given full information about the risks and benefits. For young people the answer seems obvious - the risks are not worth it, but that is for each and everyone to decide in my opinion - and it seems like we agree on that point (which is probably the most important one).

As for causality that is a huge philosophical discussion. I'm not sure if Hume would agree with your position.

As for studies showing waning effect. I honestly do not know about a single study that shows that the effect doesn't decrease with time. Hopefully that is true though. Both for those vaccinated and I'm guessing those with 2 doses will then be allied to those unvaccinated protesting when "boosters" are getting required to travel, go to restaurants etc.
The Oxford vaccine got canned in Oz because the public freaked out about HIV something something, not because it was actually "bad". Politicians make political decisions, rarely if ever based on actual science.

"Rare cases" is the keyword. Moderna (and Pfizer?) has an issue with myocarditis ... for some cohorts.

The cost (risk vs benefit) is precisely the discussion that needs to be had, but that's all too difficult for politicians. Blanket measures that make no scientific sense, that's the way to do it! :roll:

The "effectiveness" they're talking about is most likely antibody count in the bloodstream. The Science paper I skimmed through, and it doesn't seem to say what the metric precisely is... looks like a number crunch of breakthrough cases and hospitalization etc. But it still concludes that effectiveness against serious illness and death is pretty much unchanged, as other studies have found.

And that's actually the goal, isn't it? Unless you're a politician...
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:57 pm

Oz is a different level of insane.

3rd dose roll out in Norway. 4th will come. Why?

Interesting reading comment sections these days at Facebook etc. Earlier it was 95% (or something) positive comments about how great the vaccine is etc. Now it is close to 100% ridicule. Even those who have taken their 2 doses seem to beginning to realize that they might have to take 23 doses before this ends. Who knows how safe that will be etc. And how will those that think 2 is enough deal with having to take 3, 4 etc. to be considered vaccinated?

Also interesting that the "new" strain is spreading to Australia, Canada etc. where the unvaccinated can't travel. Still there are no outbreaks in China of course :lol:

My guess is this will end up in full scale riots. And even if I sympathise with that I don't think that will be a good thing. You don't need to like or even respect the government, but at the point a significant percentage of the population actually think the government is hostile to you that will end up in violence.
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Kamikuza » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:42 pm

Havre wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:57 pm
Oz is a different level of insane.

3rd dose roll out in Norway. 4th will come. Why?

Interesting reading comment sections these days at Facebook etc. Earlier it was 95% (or something) positive comments about how great the vaccine is etc. Now it is close to 100% ridicule. Even those who have taken their 2 doses seem to beginning to realize that they might have to take 23 doses before this ends. Who knows how safe that will be etc. And how will those that think 2 is enough deal with having to take 3, 4 etc. to be considered vaccinated?

Also interesting that the "new" strain is spreading to Australia, Canada etc. where the unvaccinated can't travel. Still there are no outbreaks in China of course :lol:

My guess is this will end up in full scale riots. And even if I sympathise with that I don't think that will be a good thing. You don't need to like or even respect the government, but at the point a significant percentage of the population actually think the government is hostile to you that will end up in violence.
Why? How conspiratorial do you want to get :lol:

Latest info from the scientists in South Africa is that xi+1 has "very, very mild symptoms". They'll ignore that though won't they.

Oz is already stocking up on rubber bullets and truncheons, I hear.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby rnelias » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:44 pm

I'm now wondering what variant they'll call when we reach Omega :D :D :D

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:07 pm

Kamikuza wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:42 pm
Havre wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:57 pm
Oz is a different level of insane.

3rd dose roll out in Norway. 4th will come. Why?

Interesting reading comment sections these days at Facebook etc. Earlier it was 95% (or something) positive comments about how great the vaccine is etc. Now it is close to 100% ridicule. Even those who have taken their 2 doses seem to beginning to realize that they might have to take 23 doses before this ends. Who knows how safe that will be etc. And how will those that think 2 is enough deal with having to take 3, 4 etc. to be considered vaccinated?

Also interesting that the "new" strain is spreading to Australia, Canada etc. where the unvaccinated can't travel. Still there are no outbreaks in China of course :lol:

My guess is this will end up in full scale riots. And even if I sympathise with that I don't think that will be a good thing. You don't need to like or even respect the government, but at the point a significant percentage of the population actually think the government is hostile to you that will end up in violence.
Why? How conspiratorial do you want to get :lol:

Latest info from the scientists in South Africa is that xi+1 has "very, very mild symptoms". They'll ignore that though won't they.

Oz is already stocking up on rubber bullets and truncheons, I hear.
Mhm. I remember in February/March 2020 when a professor in Norway was saying the virus will quickly mutate into a less harmful version. Obviously he was wrong in terms of timing, but hopefully this is what is happening now. Seems like we really want this "new" version to take over, but instead the EU etc. are talking about mandatory vaccinations.

Truly living in an upside/down world - even if I cannot say if we yet know that Omicron is even less harmless than previous versions.


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