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Bad News! Corona Discussion

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Hugh2
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Hugh2 » Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:28 pm

Yesterday was 8,651 new cases in South Africa, which is doubling every day for the past few days, now that's tranmissability! And positivity rate is up to 16%, which is very high. If this Omicron variant is as dangerous as the previous ones the health system here will be overwhelmed in a matter of weeks. Fingers crossed that most experts are right and it will be less likely to cause serious disease that requires hospitalization.

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Havre
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:42 pm

Screenshot_20211202-174058_Samsung Internet.jpg
This is the number of people admitted to hospitals in Norway over the last years with respiratory illnesses.

As you can see Covid-19 is a huge problem and completely overloading our system.

It is true that this doesn't take into consideration the resources needed to treat each individual patient and it doesn't say anything about for how long they stay.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby grigorib » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:00 pm

Hugh2 wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:28 pm
Yesterday was 8,651 new cases in South Africa, which is doubling every day for the past few days, now that's tranmissability! And positivity rate is up to 16%, which is very high. If this Omicron variant is as dangerous as the previous ones the health system here will be overwhelmed in a matter of weeks. Fingers crossed that most experts are right and it will be less likely to cause serious disease that requires hospitalization.
Lambda didn’t cause much damage. It would be nice if virus is adapting a bit not to kill its carriers. Also going to contribute to natural immunity since SA is under 30% vaccinated.

Question, because I don’t know - how will new common cold coronaviruses are distinguish to not invoke panic and lockdowns of being mistakenly called out as COVID variance? How soon is it known?

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Havre
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm

grigorib wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:06 pm
Even back in 2020 numbers were showing COVID death rate jumps at age 40+ and just like with flu or cold, kids in schools are exchanging viruses very fast. Also building immunity against non-human virus our bodies don’t know how to fight (and by day 10 lungs are already damaged) is not a bad thing.
80% of COVID hospitalizations and 90% of ICU COVID patients in local hospital are not vaccinated - people choose their freedom of doing self-damage, would be comparable to TikTube “shoot yourself into stomach” challenge.
Vaccines work and people deserve to live.

If you consider hospitalizations and deaths from COVID as major KPI and keep them low, it hopefully will become one of the quite manageable diseases with no PCR testings, lockdowns and mandates. And prevention makes sense.
As you do get tetanus shot once every 10 years, as kids get polio shots - stay protected.
Where?

One of the countries with the best data on this is the UK.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eek-48.pdf
Screenshot 2021-12-02 at 18.22.47.png
In the older age groups you are talking about somewhere around 80% being vaccinated. Doesn't show that the vaccines aren't working as there are more than 80% in those age groups vaccinated, but your numbers seem wildly off.

In Norway the number has been somewhere around 60% for weeks - vaccinated being hospitalised.
Screenshot 2021-12-02 at 18.25.51.png
And it isn't really trending the right way. As high level of vaccination was already achieved before you see that people vaccinated were in the majority among hospitalisations. It isn't bad though. For me the vaccines do seem to have a decent short term effect.

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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby grigorib » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:50 pm

Havre wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm
grigorib wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:06 pm
Even back in 2020 numbers were showing COVID death rate jumps at age 40+ and just like with flu or cold, kids in schools are exchanging viruses very fast. Also building immunity against non-human virus our bodies don’t know how to fight (and by day 10 lungs are already damaged) is not a bad thing.
80% of COVID hospitalizations and 90% of ICU COVID patients in local hospital are not vaccinated - people choose their freedom of doing self-damage, would be comparable to TikTube “shoot yourself into stomach” challenge.
Vaccines work and people deserve to live.

If you consider hospitalizations and deaths from COVID as major KPI and keep them low, it hopefully will become one of the quite manageable diseases with no PCR testings, lockdowns and mandates. And prevention makes sense.
As you do get tetanus shot once every 10 years, as kids get polio shots - stay protected.
Where?
..
Carle Hospital at Champaign, IL
I’ve been looking at the stats amidst delta variant hitting us and the hospital and its ER were pretty full.
Again, we’re university town and city folks are rather educated. It’s countryside sending their “self-inflicted damage because I’m free” here. They’re good people but they drink some funny news juice and make poor decisions.
And then my friends and a kid experiencing life-threatening bacterial infection sit and wait for a bed along with another parents/kid who’s having appendicitis in a tent outside - because ER is full of unnecessarily sick people who think that it’s only their choice, only their consequences.

https://carle.org/home/covid-19-resourc ... id-numbers
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Havre
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:10 pm

grigorib wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:50 pm
Havre wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm
grigorib wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:06 pm
Even back in 2020 numbers were showing COVID death rate jumps at age 40+ and just like with flu or cold, kids in schools are exchanging viruses very fast. Also building immunity against non-human virus our bodies don’t know how to fight (and by day 10 lungs are already damaged) is not a bad thing.
80% of COVID hospitalizations and 90% of ICU COVID patients in local hospital are not vaccinated - people choose their freedom of doing self-damage, would be comparable to TikTube “shoot yourself into stomach” challenge.
Vaccines work and people deserve to live.

If you consider hospitalizations and deaths from COVID as major KPI and keep them low, it hopefully will become one of the quite manageable diseases with no PCR testings, lockdowns and mandates. And prevention makes sense.
As you do get tetanus shot once every 10 years, as kids get polio shots - stay protected.
Where?
..
Carle Hospital at Champaign, IL
I’ve been looking at the stats amidst delta variant hitting us and the hospital and its ER were pretty full.
Again, we’re university town and city folks are rather educated. It’s countryside sending their “self-inflicted damage because I’m free” here. They’re good people but they drink some funny news juice and make poor decisions.
And then my friends and a kid experiencing life-threatening bacterial infection sit and wait for a bed along with another parents/kid who’s having appendicitis in a tent outside - because ER is full of unnecessarily sick people who think that it’s only their choice, only their consequences.

https://carle.org/home/covid-19-resourc ... id-numbers
OK. I'll place that in the same category as the video I shared from Belgium where 100% of the ICU patients were vaccinated. Nothing to suggest that these numbers are representative for full populations.

You should blame the people with a BMI above 28 or so for that. Rather absurd way of looking at things, but for some reason this has become acceptable when it comes to Covid-19. When people stop smoking (I don't smoke), slim down (I'm not overweight), stop speeding (I rarely go over the speed limit), stop drinking more than the odd glass of wine (I don't drink much) etc. then people can start talk to me about how anyone's choice not to become vaccinated shouldn't be their choice.

grigorib
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby grigorib » Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:25 pm

Havre wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:10 pm
grigorib wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:50 pm
Havre wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm


Where?
..
Carle Hospital at Champaign, IL
I’ve been looking at the stats amidst delta variant hitting us and the hospital and its ER were pretty full.
Again, we’re university town and city folks are rather educated. It’s countryside sending their “self-inflicted damage because I’m free” here. They’re good people but they drink some funny news juice and make poor decisions.
And then my friends and a kid experiencing life-threatening bacterial infection sit and wait for a bed along with another parents/kid who’s having appendicitis in a tent outside - because ER is full of unnecessarily sick people who think that it’s only their choice, only their consequences.

https://carle.org/home/covid-19-resourc ... id-numbers
OK. I'll place that in the same category as the video I shared from Belgium where 100% of the ICU patients were vaccinated. Nothing to suggest that these numbers are representative for full populations.

You should blame the people with a BMI above 28 or so for that. Rather absurd way of looking at things, but for some reason this has become acceptable when it comes to Covid-19. When people stop smoking (I don't smoke), slim down (I'm not overweight), stop speeding (I rarely go over the speed limit), stop drinking more than the odd glass of wine (I don't drink much) etc. then people can start talk to me about how anyone's choice not to become vaccinated shouldn't be their choice.
Funny that bad driving cost people a ton in fines and higher insurance but drinking/smoking/overweight pay as much for healthcare same. Yet those habits mostly affect only themselves (plus their families) as it’s not transmissible like COVID and vaccinations just as results of bad habits are covered by medical science, so it makes sense to follow, in our case - what CDC says. Just as it makes sense to follow construction code and rules of the road - those are all limiting one’s freedom but overall are rather beneficiary compared to inconvenience and cost they come at.

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Havre
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:04 pm

grigorib wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:25 pm
Havre wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:10 pm
grigorib wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:50 pm


Carle Hospital at Champaign, IL
I’ve been looking at the stats amidst delta variant hitting us and the hospital and its ER were pretty full.
Again, we’re university town and city folks are rather educated. It’s countryside sending their “self-inflicted damage because I’m free” here. They’re good people but they drink some funny news juice and make poor decisions.
And then my friends and a kid experiencing life-threatening bacterial infection sit and wait for a bed along with another parents/kid who’s having appendicitis in a tent outside - because ER is full of unnecessarily sick people who think that it’s only their choice, only their consequences.

https://carle.org/home/covid-19-resourc ... id-numbers
OK. I'll place that in the same category as the video I shared from Belgium where 100% of the ICU patients were vaccinated. Nothing to suggest that these numbers are representative for full populations.

You should blame the people with a BMI above 28 or so for that. Rather absurd way of looking at things, but for some reason this has become acceptable when it comes to Covid-19. When people stop smoking (I don't smoke), slim down (I'm not overweight), stop speeding (I rarely go over the speed limit), stop drinking more than the odd glass of wine (I don't drink much) etc. then people can start talk to me about how anyone's choice not to become vaccinated shouldn't be their choice.
Funny that bad driving cost people a ton in fines and higher insurance but drinking/smoking/overweight pay as much for healthcare same. Yet those habits mostly affect only themselves (plus their families) as it’s not transmissible like COVID and vaccinations just as results of bad habits are covered by medical science, so it makes sense to follow, in our case - what CDC says. Just as it makes sense to follow construction code and rules of the road - those are all limiting one’s freedom but overall are rather beneficiary compared to inconvenience and cost they come at.
I think the word "freedom" in this context is misused. I cannot speak for everyone not getting vaccinated of course. Some might very well consider the vaccine to be beneficial, but that they refuse to take them because it restricts their freedom. I would imagine they would be a small minority thinking like that. I know no-one personally. Asking someone to drive slower does in certain ways restrict their "freedom", but it is hard to argue it would have any negative at least physical consequences for them. The vaccine could. One might call them stupid, uneducated etc. for thinking so, but those are not good arguments for forcing anyone to do anything in my opinion. I have personally few views on how other evaluate their cost benefit for things. For me it is more absurd eating at McDonald's than not taking a vaccine etc., but I don't really judge people thinking differently.

You rightly point to the strongest argument for getting vaccinated. I got elders in my family (as most of us do). Would I want to risk infecting them? It wouldn't exactly be a great feeling if I ended up killing one of my family members by infecting them with Covid-19. I would guess most who are not vaccinated have considered that opportunity. However, more and more data is coming out that in terms of infecting others vaccination status doesn't seem to be very important. In the UK the number of infections per capita has been higher among the vaccinated for months now.
Screenshot_20211202-195259_Adobe Acrobat.jpg
Screenshot_20211202-195259_Adobe Acrobat.jpg (77.45 KiB) Viewed 239 times
Doesn't mean I think it spreads easier among the vaccinated, but as of now I don't see it as a strong reason to ask people to get vaccinated. Just the other day a company had a party where somewhere around 40 out of 200 got infected. I'm not sure if things are confirmed yet, but I heard through a friend of mine who has a friend working there that everyone where vaccinated. Time will tell.

grigorib
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby grigorib » Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:34 pm

Live example - a friend of a friend from nearby “conservative town”. Lost both beasts to cancer and still smokes a pack of cigarettes a day. Very much pro-life / anti-abortion and raising a child with Down syndrome, another child is on bi-weekly dialysis and had to get an abortion which mom suddenly supported because pregnancy would have killed her daughter. Very much anti-masks, anti-vaccine. Both kids are on state-provided support and health insurance and mom is “f**k government!”. That in words of Jim Jeffries a dumbfree. She’s a slave to her ignorance and her despise to science is intertwined with despise to government which is paying for her kids healthcare. No need to mention she’s a passionate Fox News viewer and believer, if it matters to make an image of what “freedom” some folks live. She doesn’t deserve to die but her ignorance will kill her.
It’s a freedom to do whatever including self-harm which is one of few things those folks perceive they have left. They’re clearly behind the curve, they’re losing their “I don’t need education to be smart/successful” game and all she will leave to her husband is her broke eldest son whose friend got shot dead in the driveway for owing money as a drug dealer. Yet “we will not let socialism pass” which being government ownership of means of production, she confuses, just as most of their crowd with social protections they need and use probably more than anyone else.
It used to be religion and dogma keeping these folks in fear and in check but it’s pretty much gone too.
Next to immigrants with university+ degree, speaking three languages, paying tens of thousands in taxes every year and striving to be a success because they know how hard it is elsewhere - these guys are not winning and now let’s talk about immigrants and hatred towards them.
I don’t think these “conservative towns” are free at all. Plus they don’t kite which is really sad.
Last edited by grigorib on Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Havre
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Re: Bad News! S. Africa - Travel Bans/Restrictions

Postby Havre » Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:53 pm

Certainly not representative for those I know are unvaccinated in Norway. Everyone I know will acknowledge that it is a harmful virus. All will to a varying degree say that vaccines probably work short term. But as basically all of them are young, at least below 40, they don't think getting a vaccine against a virus that is extremely unlikely to even make them especially sick is not worth the risk. Even more so as there will he new mutations and no-one can say what the safety of shot 17 will be.

Not a single one of them would ever try to talk anyone else out of getting a vaccine.
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